In the weeks since the attempted bombing of a Northwest flight over Detroit, air travel and travelers have been subjected to inconvenience, fear, frustration and mass confusion not seen in the travel industry since the immediate aftermath of 9/11.
And as of last week, all signs indicated that the hassles were intensifying rather than letting up. New reports emerged almost hourly of security breaches, real or imagined, on aircraft or in airports.
These included incidents at airports in Newark, Minneapolis, Miami, Bakersfield, Calif., and Pensacola, Fla., as well as an in-flight scare on a Hawaii-bound plane that ended up being escorted back to Portland, Ore., by two F-15 fighters.
In less than two weeks since the attempted bombing, commercial aviation had become substantially less efficient, not to mention less friendly and less comfortable. And while evidence abounded of federal officials reacting and overreacting, there was little evidence that the safety of air travel had actually improved as a result.
Indeed, the "suspicious items" that touched off the scare that closed down some terminal operations in Bakersfield turned out to be nothing more than bottles of honey.
And the man who slipped past security officers at Newark — forcing Transportation Security Administration officials to halt operations at Terminal C, the airport’s largest terminal, and rescreen all passengers — had yet to be found or even identified as of press time.
Meanwhile, as the security clampdown continued, the Obama administration was taking more meaningful steps, enhancing screening procedures, augmenting government no-fly lists and looking for ways to bolster its aviation risk intelligence.
Most in the industry agreed that there was bound to be some kind of immediate economic impact from tighter air travel security. But significantly, no one was expecting the kind of widespread public fear, with its devastating economic consequences, that so constricted airlines after the 9/11 attacks.
The question for many now is: Will the anticipated economic recovery overshadow any business losses due to tighter security hassles, or will those strictures fuel avoidance of flying and thus further dampen demand?
The current security focus represents an opportunity for those who want to see procedures revamped. It’s time, they say, to deploy technologically advanced equipment and revisit everything from visa applications to passenger profiling.
There are even some who see the current climate as an opportunity to persuade Congress to pass the Travel Promotion Act, making aspects of travel to the U.S. friendlier as a counterbalance to the increased security hassles.
"The recent change in air travel security policies only underscores the need for the Travel Promotion Act," said Roger Dow, president and CEO of the U.S. Travel Association. "Our increase in security must be matched with an increase in our welcome."
One thing that could upset that balance, analysts said, is continuing news about air travel security woes.
"Given the focus on aviation security and aviation as a whole, there’s a heightened awareness," said Christopher Bidwell, vice president of security and facilitation for Airports Council International – North America.
Still, analysts and others in the industry fear that a repetition of such incidents over ensuing weeks, plus the administration’s security review and planned Congressional hearings into travel screening and other related issues, could pressure security officials to take even stronger steps.
"This could have a bigger impact than some people assume it would," said analyst Vaughn Cordle of the AirlineForecasts consultancy. "Business travelers cannot afford to waste hours and hours waiting in lines."
Even so, the industry has been generally receptive to most recent Transportation Security Administration directives.
Almost immediately after the Dec. 25 bombing attempt, the TSA took a hard-line stance that drew widespread criticism. Among other things, the TSA told airlines to keep passengers in their seats for the last hour of flights and forbid flyers from having anything on their laps while aloft.
However, within a couple of days, the agency backpedaled, leaving such restrictions to the captain’s discretion.
Better, experts said, but still not the best answer.
"You’re going to see some cowboys out there," said Cordle, a former commercial jet pilot. Some captains, he said, "are going to be overly restrictive."
Last week, the TSA issued a new set of directives. While it won’t release details, the agency has acknowledged that the new measures include "enhanced screening" for every passenger flying into the U.S. when traveling from or through countries designated as state sponsors of terrorism "or other countries of interest."
Tougher screening ahead
The agency also said flyers would see more "enhanced screening technologies," as well as increased "threat-based and random screening for passengers on U.S.-bound international flights" for all airlines.
Aviation groups welcomed those measures. David Castelveter, a spokesman for the Air Transport Association, said the ATA supported tougher screening for U.S.-bound passengers traveling from suspect countries. The rules, he said, are being "implemented in the most convenient manner."
Now, everyone is waiting to see how much further the government will go and what effect its actions will have on the airline industry and travel.
While President Obama has acknowledged that the Dec. 25 breach was mostly an intelligence snafu, there’s little doubt that there will be new measures that will affect all levels of travel.
Visas will be harder to come by. Airport lines will grow. The number of names on the no-fly list will increase.
Already, many are writing off Registered Traveler as a casualty, at least for right now.
The RT program, mandated by Congress after 9/11, was intended to speed prescreened travelers through security lines by issuing biometric ID cards. But the program was gutted when the TSA refused to perform the background checks, leaving that to private enterprise.
Last summer, the main RT line operator, Clear, ceased operations. FLO, another operator, was working to restart operations at several airports this year, and many predicted the TSA would become more involved again.
All of that, though, appears to be on hold in light of the recent clampdown.
It now appears that longer lines, not shorter or quicker ones, will be the norm at many airports. Airport Council’s Bidwell said international airports were seeing security holdups, and domestic airports reported no significant line delays.
Still, concerns about flying or security hassles could persuade many people to forgo air travel for the time being, analysts said.
Every percentage-point drop in industrywide passenger numbers could mean about $1 billion in lost revenue for the domestic airlines as a whole, Cordle estimated, though he added that "the economic turnaround should offset any minor dip."
Even so, a long-term government crackdown could change that dip into a dive.
Bidwell said the crackdown actually could decrease the hassle factor if the TSA started to use full-body scanners that could cut security-line wait times, because passengers would no longer have to remove their shoes and some other clothing items as currently required.
The TSA is addressing privacy concerns, Bidwell said, by looking at technology that would make body parts indiscernible by making them fuzzy.
Much like the future of airline security.