U.S. hotel revenue growth will stay steady through at least the next two years on increased travel spending from U.S. baby boomers, more incoming tourism from countries such as Brazil and China and little in the way of new supply, analysts said Tuesday at the Americas Lodging Investment Summit in Los Angeles.
U.S. revenue per available room (RevPAR), which advanced 6.8% last year primarily on room-rate increases, will rise 5.7% this year and 6% in 2014, Smith Travel Research (STR) Chairman Randell Smith said in a presentation at the conference.
PKF Hospitality was slightly more optimistic, forecasting 2013 RevPAR growth of 6% this year and 8.4% in 2014.
Average room rate is about 25 cents off of the 2008 peak, reaching $106.89 last year, though the inflation-adjusted rate remains substantially below the pre-recession level, according to STR.
“What should we be worried about? Nothing,” said PKF Hospitality Research President Mark Woodworth in a presentation at the conference. “We’re having a really hard time coming up with negative aspects to this story.”
Earlier this week, STR said U.S. 2012 RevPAR increased 6.8% from a year earlier, up from STR’s December forecast of a 6.6% RevPAR increase.
U.S. room rates rose 4.2% from 2011 to $106.10, while occupancy advanced 2.5 percentage points to 61.4%. Follow Danny King on Twitter @dktravelweekly.