There are rumors that NCL might cancel a $2 billion contract for two 4,200-passenger ships in its new F3 class, a move that would benefit the cruise industry, according to UBS equity analyst Robin Farley.
If the order with Aker Yards is canceled, North American capacity growth would drop in 2010 (the year both ships are slated to debut) to 4.7%, down from historic growth averages of 7% to 8%, Farley said.
"If the contract were canceled, this combined with the strengthening U.S. dollar could potentially lower shipyard new-build prices for all cruise lines and reduce capacity increases in the market overall," Farley wrote.
NCL has not commented on reports that it is in a contractual dispute with Aker's shipyard in St. Nazaire, France, over the F3 ships. Aker has only said that the project is ongoing, but various sources have said that the contract is in limbo, and that NCL and Aker have had difficulty coming to terms.
Some say that working with the yard in St. Nazaire, which has experienced several changes in ownership over the past few years, has been difficult for NCL.
An Aker spokesman said the project was going forth on schedule. NCL said it would not "comment on commercial or legal disputes."