One out of every 12 rental cars in the U.S. market could soon be pulled out of commission as a result of the massive recall of 8.1 million Toyota vehicles.

While most U.S. car-rental companies predicted the effects would be short-lived and relatively minor, they also said they expected the recall to cull as many as 100,000 cars from their fleets for an unknown length of time.

Toyota on Jan. 26 suspended sales of eight models, including the Camry, Corolla and Avalon, and recalled 2.3 million vehicles because of issues involving sticking accelerators. The recall has been expanded to about 8 million vehicles worldwide, including about 5 million in the U.S.

Toyota last week pegged the total costs related to the recall at about $2 billion.

In the short-term, the resulting reduced capacity in car-rental fleets could damage event-driven business in places like the southeast, where the Super Bowl was expected to spur demand last weekend.

Long-term, analysts expressed concern that it could create ripples through the industry in the form of lower vehicle resale values.

Enterprise Holdings, which operates its eponymous brand as well as National and Alamo, said last week its fleets included about 35,000 Toyotas and Pontiac Vibes affected by the recall, or about 4% of its fleet.

Avis Budget Group has about 20,000 affected cars, or about 7% of its North America fleet.

Hertz Corp., which did not specify how many vehicles were affected when it announced on Jan. 27 that it would stop renting recalled vehicles, could suffer the biggest blow to its business, as about 13% of the cars it bought in 2008 were made by Toyota.

All told, about one in 12 cars in U.S. car-rental fleets may be out of commission because of the recall, which was caused by gas pedal issues, according to Neil Abrams, principle at Purchase, N.Y.-based Abrams Consulting Group.

Car rental companies all declined to say whether they would pursue financial compensation from Toyota. But they were quick to downplay the impact, with Enterprise saying in a Feb. 2 statement that it responded "quickly and smoothly" to the recall.

Avis Budget spokesman John Barrows last week called the business impact "minimal." Hertz, which said Jan. 27 that it expected Toyota’s recall to "have minimal operational disruptions," didn’t respond to requests for further comment late last week.

Still, the recall is likely to add to operational costs related to switching cars around to account for supply shortfalls. Its most immediate impact was in southeast outposts of rental car companies that last week were looking to send additional cars to the Miami area to accommodate the approximately 75,000 fans expected to attend the Super Bowl on Feb. 7.

Car rental car companies have boosted the number of Toyotas in their fleets over the past few years partially because they hold their value better than U.S.-made vehicles, but they may be regretting that decision as Toyota’s reputation takes a hit.

"Toyota has been a great company, so this is almost Tiger Woods-esque in the auto industry," said Abrams, who added that the recall was not likely to discourage rental car operators from buying Toyotas in the future.

Depreciation expenses for Hertz and Avis Budget totaled $3.9 billion in 2008, reflecting the losses the companies take when they sell cars after less than a year in service.

Depreciation expense was 27% of the companies' combined revenue, up from 24% in 2007, primarily because of falling prices for used cars.

About half of the U.S. rental cars are so-called "program vehicles," meaning the automaker either repurchases the car from the rental company or guarantees a specific resale value.

But for the other half of the fleets, even a 10% drop in resale value for Toyotas could put additional depreciation-related losses well into the $25 million range for Hertz, Avis Budget and Enterprise.

Abrams said the effect of the Toyota recall would far eclipse the impact of the 2000 recall of 6.5 million Firestone tires linked to vehicle rollover-related fatalities. That recall caused rental car companies to pull many Ford Explorers out of service.