ou can't really blame the press for
its obsession with cruise lines and the flu. The outbreak of
Norwalk-like virus is in the news not because it represents a
serious health threat to our nation, but, in part, because it
defies the expectations of a cruise experience. No one bothers to
report that far more than 200 travelers a day come down with
food-related illnesses while traveling in developing countries
because everyone headed to them has implicitly accepted some health
risks.
And the shipboard flu makes a good news story because,
predictably, it will have a beginning, middle and end that will
occur within the attention span of the average newspaper reader. On
the other hand, the struggle to raise health standards in
third-world countries is seldom on Page 1 -- though the issues are
important, progress is typically slow.
Similarly, the debate over the war in Iraq maintains a prominent
place in the media and on the minds of those in the travel
industry. For the industry, it's assumed that if war occurs, it
will have a strong negative impact initially, but, using the first
Gulf War as a guide, the impact will fade after a year. We're
optimistic that, if it must occur, it, too, will have a somewhat
predictable beginning, middle and end.
What certainly are of more concern to the travel industry than
the flu outbreak -- and what may possibly have a greater long-term
impact on travel and tourism than a war with Iraq -- are the
attacks on the Israeli-owned hotel and jet in Mombasa, Kenya.
Viewed in isolation, they are frightening; viewed as part of a
series of attacks on the "soft targets" of tourism, they are
ominous.
The attacks, coming relatively soon after the bombing in Bali,
expose a vulnerability of our industry. Many aspects of travel and
tourism are operated by small, private businesses that wouldn't
know where to begin to protect their guests and passengers from
determined terrorists.
Of further concern were the implications of a conversation I had
with the minister of tourism of a small nation that is a major
tourist destination for U.S. and European travelers. I asked the
minister what steps the nation was taking to protect visitors from
terrorism. I expected a reply along the lines of, "I can't really
discuss any of the specifics." To my surprise, the answer was, "We
don't have a plan per se. We really don't think we're a very likely
target."
I thought of that as I read the official response of the Kenya
Tourist Board to the Mombasa attacks. The statement took pains to
distance the nation from the attacks, noting that the targets were
Israeli-owned and that the coordinated assaults were "founded
entirely on events far from our shores."
Ships can be sanitized. Iraq can be defeated. I worry that the
seemingly ad hoc attacks on tourism targets may be more analogous
to third-world health problems -- while advancements are made, the
story may not have a predictable beginning, middle and end.
The first major step to ending the problem will be in the
recognition that the story has begun, that it's very serious, and
that the dateline can be from anywhere in the world.