The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association updated its hurricane forecast today for this season, which varied only slightly from its forecast in May.

With four months to go, don’t take down those storm shutters, despite only two named storms through July.

NOAA still predicts a lot of activity with 14 to 20 named storms, including eight to 12 hurricanes, of which four to six could be major, kicking up winds of at least 111 mph.

In May, NOAA predicted this could be the busiest season since 2005, when hurricanes Katrina and Rita ripped along the same part of the Gulf coast now coping with the world’s worst oil spill. Its forecast then called for 14 to 23 named storms, eight to 14 hurricanes and three to seven major hurricanes.

August generally marks the most active part of the six-month season, which peaks in mid-September and ends Nov. 30.

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