The first quarter is coming to an end, and while it might be a few weeks before all the numbers get crunched, we've been looking at the tea leaves, and they're not so bad.

Despite some weather-related disruptions, U.S. airline traffic growth has resumed. IATA was so encouraged by global trends that it revisited its economic forecast and reduced the industry's projected 2010 loss by half, from $5.6 billion to $2.8 billion.

Also on the airline front, ARC reported increased remittances from agents in January and February and a rising transaction count among agents large and small.

Cruise lines had a good Wave season, and some have been raising prices.

Hotels are not out of the woods, but it was expected that this segment would take longer to recover. The Hotel Industry Pulse Index, a monthly indicator co-managed by and Smith Travel Research, inched up in February.

It may be too soon to start singing "Happy Days Are Here Again," particularly in light of the unemployment rate, but it's not too soon to break out of the recession mindset.

Just as the first weeks of spring bring occasional cold blasts, the first stages of this recovery might be bumpy. But we're clearly talking about going over bumps, not going over cliffs.

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