What many hoped might be just a temporary dip in Canadian travel to the U.S. is now showing signs of a bona fide boycott, as the Canadian backlash to tariffs and other political tensions with the U.S. intensifies.
On March 26, aviation data company OAG said that GDS passenger bookings on Canada-U.S. routes are currently down by more than 70% every month through September, compared to the same period last year. In February, Statistics Canada reported that Canadians made 1.2 million return trips by car from the U.S., a 23% decline from the same month last year.
McKenzie McMillan
Broader impacts, said McKenzie McMillan, a luxury consultant and supplier relations manager with Vancouver-based The Travel Group, are materializing, after at first seeing a few cancellations.
"The bigger issue has been future bookings," he said. "They've cratered completely. We've had zero leisure travel requests for the U.S. through our whole agency."
McMillan said some corporate travel continues, but leisure trips to destinations like Phoenix and Southern California have "completely shut down."
Many Canadians are opting for domestic alternatives, he said, with clients on the West Coast going to the East Coast, such as Newfoundland and the Maritimes. International destinations like Europe and Mexico are also seeing stronger demand as Canadian travelers pivot away from U.S., McMillan said.
That may boost some Canadian areas, but also cause economic strain in communities where cross-border weekend trips traditionally fuel local businesses.
Trina White, general manager of The Parkside Hotel & Spa in Victoria, British Columbia, is seeing a decline in demand for ferry service connecting Victoria to Seattle and Port Angeles, Wash., from last year. "Being a border town, Victoria has concerns not just for our side, but also Seattle, who we partner very closely with," she said. "Unfortunately, what's going on will really impact small businesses."
A top market for the U.S.
Canadians are the top source of international visitors to the U.S.: According to the U.S. Travel Association 20.4 million visits from Canadians in 2024 generated $20.5 billion in spending. U.S. Travel in February estimated that a 10% reduction in Canadian travel could mean 2 million fewer visits and $2.1 billion in lost spending.
McMillan suggested the impact could be far greater than 10%. "The word I'm getting from a lot of my clients is the damage has been done," he said. "At this time, it's just not advantageous to us as a business to do any promotion of the U.S."
U.S. destination management organizations hope to stave off a major dip by marketing and welcoming visitors.
David Blandford, executive director of State of Washington Tourism, said the DMO is "hearing reports of Canadian travelers adjusting their plans due to the current political situation .... As our top international market, Canadian visitors play a vital role in our tourism economy."
In Whitefish, Mont., Canadian visitation spend fell 14.2% in January from the same month in 2024, said Lucy Guthrie Beighle, communications director for Montana's Glacier Country. "It's hard to gauge whether people are deciding not to come because of the strong dollar or because of political rhetoric," she said.
But she and other Montana tourism representatives are concerned.
"Montana will always welcome Canadian visitors with open arms," she said, adding that she and her tourism partners are encouraging spring visits from "our neighbors to the north."
Julie Coker
New York state's DMO, Empire State Development, "continues to robustly market and promote" to Canadians, said Ross Levi, executive director of tourism.
And in the Big Apple, where Canada is the second-largest international market with nearly a million visitors annually, Julie Coker, CEO of New York City Tourism + Conventions, is optimistic, despite hearing from Broadway venues about a slowing booking pace and some cancellations from smaller tour operators with Canadian clients. "We've faced obstacles before, but we've been able to weather the storm and come out stronger," she said.
NYC Tourism is moving forward with Canadian outreach, such as an April press trip coinciding with a New York-Toronto baseball game and a sales mission bringing Canadian buyers to New York. It is also leaning into its "With Love and Liberty" tourism campaign. "Lady Liberty is the iconic symbol of diversity and inclusiveness," Coker said. "All are welcome."
Airlines drop seats
OAG's data shows that 320,000 seats have been removed by airlines operating between Canada and the U.S. through the end of October, with the biggest cuts in July and August, the peak summer season months, when airlines cut capacity about 3.5%.
United CEO Scott Kirby said on March 11 that the airline would reduce U.S.-Canada capacity due to a significant drop in demand. Air Canada had already in February "proactively" decided to reduce capacity to Florida, Las Vegas and Arizona in March.
As of late March, Canada's WestJet had cut cross-border routes from its late-spring and summer schedule as well as multiple Canada-U.S. connections, while Air Canada dropped Vancouver-Washington Dulles and United axed Toronto-Los Angeles.
For some Canadians, the boycott extends beyond visiting the U.S.
"We have clients that would normally go through Miami to get to Vancouver, and they're now saying, 'Nope, we'll do an overnight in Toronto.' They do not want to enter the country," McMillan said, pointing to widely publicized incidents of Canadians being detained at U.S. border crossings. "I've never seen Canadians this angry, hurt and scared at the same time."
Robert Silk contributed to this report.