ALEXANDRIA, Va. -- Most travel managers do not anticipate a full
recovery of business travel before 2004, saying their companies'
travel will remain down as long as the economy remains unstable,
according to a survey of 200 travel managers conducted by the
National Business Travel Association.
And with travel budgets mostly flat or declining, most travel
managers said they intend to boost their use of low-fare carriers
and lower-priced hotel brands in 2003.
Of those responding to the November survey, 34% reported flat
2003 budgets with no changes compared with 2002; 11% predicted a
decrease of 2% to 4%; and 38% said they will be decreasing their
travel budgets for 2003 by about 8%.
Travel managers are not optimistic about a full recovery for
corporate travel. Only 4% said they anticipate recovery within
first-quarter 2003, while 28% do not foresee recovery in business
travel until the latter half of 2004 or beyond.
In comparison, a March survey revealed that travel managers
expected a recovery within six to 12 months.
Colleen Guhin, global travel manager at ON Semiconductor in
Phoenix, is one of those pessimistic travel managers. Cost-cutting
measures implemented in 2001, such as mandatory coach travel for
international trips, will remain in place for 2003.
"Our travelers aren't happy about it, but they understand,"
Guhin said. "We would like to get back to where we were before
2001, but that's not going to happen."
Survey respondents indicated that business fares may be on the
rise, as 57% of travel managers said they expect 2003 fares to
increase between 1% and 10% based on proposals received from
airlines.
To offset an expected price increase, managers plan to use more
low-fare carriers; 66% of respondents indicated they would use
discount airlines more frequently in 2003 compared with 2002.
The NBTA said interest in low-cost carriers is growing, as a
September survey showed that only 22% of travel managers had
increased negotiations with low-cost carriers.
In the hotel sector, 32% of travel managers foresee flat rates
after evaluating proposals from vendors. Half of the respondents
foresee an increase in utilization of lower-end hotels in 2003
compared with 2002.
Again, the number reveals an increasing importance of
alternative suppliers. In the September survey, only a third of
respondents said they had negotiated with lower-end properties or
fewer luxury properties.
"I am focusing on more lower-end properties than last year,"
Guhin said. "Also, we've gotten some pretty good discounts, and
last-room availability [at the negotiated rate] has been easier to
get."