Global travel demand will fall 57% in 2020 and international tourism won't reach 2019 levels again until 2024, according to the latest forecast from Oxford Economics.
The report released Thursday also shows North America will have the biggest drop in international tourism, with a decline of 70%. And only 84% of countries in the Americas region are expected to return to 2019 levels by 2024, a lower proportion than for all other regions.
The latest forecast on the impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic's impact on travel reflects more moderate expectations for an initial recovery in international tourism in the second half of 2020 and a further downward revision to the outlook for 2021 and beyond.
After North America, Oxford Economics said, Asia-Pacific will see the second-largest drop in inbound tourism, with international arrivals falling 57%.
Europe, which opened its borders relatively quickly following the Covid-19 outbreak, is expected to see a 56% decline in 2020 cross-border traffic, with a full recovery not expected any earlier than 2024, according to the forecast.
Inbound travel to the Caribbean and Central and South America will drop 59% and 51%, respectively, according to the report.
The 10 cities forecast to see the largest percentage fall in international visitors are all in the United States, with New York expected to see the greatest decline at 79%. Orlando, Miami and San Francisco are expected to see drops of 78%, while Los Angeles, Honolulu and Boston will see drops of 77%.
Beyond the U.S., Cancun is forecast to see a 41% decline.