China's impact on African resources (tourism included)

When he was a young boy, Roni Madhvani rode on Idi Amin's massive shoulders during a hunting safari. But Amin would eventually chase his family, along with others of Asian descent, from Uganda, where they had first settled a century ago.

Madhvani, now in his mid-40s, is the scion of one of the wealthiest families in East Africa. He and his relatives returned after Amin was deposed and built a diversified company with holdings in sugar, tea, steel, insurance and tourism, among other goods and services.

Over breakfast in New York recently, Madhvani told me that Uganda, and African tourism in general, is on the cusp of massive upheaval. The direction of change won't recall the horrors witnessed during the Amin regime, but will nonetheless be dramatic and almost certainly longer-lasting.

Among his corporate responsibilities is the family's tourism business, Marasa Holdings. It comprises three properties in Kenya (the Ark and Aberdare Country Club, recently acquired from Fairmont, and Mara Leisure Camp) and three safari lodges in Uganda (Mweya, Paraa and Chobe). He has already invested tens of millions of dollars in these properties, and his ambition is to build the largest safari lodge company in East Africa.

But as he does, he is cognizant of what he considers an enormous shift in the continent's dynamics. "There's a second scramble for Africa and its resources," he said. "The Chinese are there in significant numbers."

Oil, he said, was discovered along the Rift Valley, including in Uganda, and several poor African nations will likely be developing rapidly in the coming years.

"Tourism will not be as important," said Madhvani, who recently headed Uganda's tourism board. "It's clear that oil is the No. 1 thing. If the choice is to discover and extract oil from land or to protect animals, there's no argument. It's important to visit Africa and see it in the next five to 10 years, before everything changes."

Tourism-wise, Uganda is still recovering from the negative impressions that resulted from the Amin era and the subsequent years of civil disturbances. At this point, Madhvani said, most of the 60,000 visitors coming to Queen Elizabeth National Park, the nation's primary game-viewing reserve, are expatriates and visiting missionaries. About 22% of the visitors are American, but it's the source market he is most keen to expand. "I feel strongly that if people see the beauty and return and spread the word, we will have passionate brand ambassadors."

He acknowledges that Uganda doesn't have the quantity of game to match Kenya or Tanzania, but he feels its noncommercialized nature is actually a selling point. "When you see a pride of lions in Uganda, you won't see 20 other minibuses around it. Queen Elizabeth National Park has lions, hippo and over 2,000 elephants. And our bird life, with 600 species, beats everyone else, hands down."
The rush for Africa's resources will certainly affect and, as Madhvani suggests, will likely be detrimental to tourism. But there will be a concurrent phenomenon that will also have an impact on tourism throughout the continent and destinations around the world.

The first Chinese tourist I remember seeing was in Africa, atop Cairo Tower, in 1983. He was conspicuous not only because he was setting up a small telescope, but because he was dressed as Chinese adults did in those days, in a dark blue Mao jacket and cap. I spoke to him briefly, and he told me he was attached to the embassy in Cairo.

It would be more than two decades before I met another Chinese traveler.

But by 2027, it's predicted, more than 1 billion Chinese will have entered the middle class, and they will be eager to travel the world. You will see them on the streets of world capitals, delighting hoteliers, but also visiting and adding to the pressures upon natural areas, from Maasai Mara to Yellowstone (for which they might hold the mortgage if current trends continue).

This is not to sound an alarm of impending calamity. In fact, it's great that a somewhat xenophobic nation, whose citizens have for so long been denied the right to travel, will begin to cross borders.

But Madhvani's note of urgency to see the world now, before changes wrought by China's increasing economic power manifest, rings true. It's not that the world's wonders won't be available in the future. They'll just be a whole lot more crowded.

Email Arnie Weissmann at [email protected] and follow him on Twitter.