Will elections and Europe curse 2012?

European economic woes and American election-year politics are dominating headlines at the dawn of 2012. And they may, in fact, play an outsize role in your business prospects throughout this year.

The travel industry's election-year curse -- the oft-stated belief that Americans travel less during an election year because they're distracted by political developments -- is, depending upon whom you're speaking with, either a recurring industry blight or a fable that has been repeated so often it has become accepted as fact.

More concrete are Europe's financial problems. The latest moves by the European Union leadership to put a patch on the difficulties might momentarily ease building pressures, but they also guarantee that anxiety will continue for months to come.

I recently had lunch with someone whose business is particularly vulnerable to the negative impact these issues pose for the industry's operating environment, and he provided me with insightful perspective on both.

Frederic Langlois is CEO of Rail Europe. He belies expectations in many regards: He's a Frenchman who prefers Diet Coke to wine, is more inspired by the American Dream than many natives and defends U.S. travelers against what he perceives as unfair stereotypes.

He is also coming off his "best year ever," at least as regards his top line. His business, selling train tickets in Europe and for Amtrak, is about evenly divided between the trade and consumer-direct.

While he is optimistic about 2012, he has also identified European economic distress and the election-year curse as potential threats.

He focuses on two aspects of the financial crisis: potential civil unrest in Europe and the strength of the euro.

"We had a Eurostar [high-speed Chunnel train] booking incentive for travel agents in early August last year, but it didn't sell well because of riots in Britain," he said. "If the euro goes down, that will mean Europe is in a messy situation. Look at what happened in Greece. If there are riots on TV [as a result of imposed austerity measures], who will be willing to go there?"

Langlois is sympathetic to Americans who are skittish about visiting destinations experiencing disruption, even when the problems are of brief duration or confined to small areas.

"Europeans who have five to seven weeks of vacation can afford to be risk-takers," he said. "But if you have one or two weeks, you don't want to spend rare vacation days facing potential problems."

The exchange rate between dollars and euros is another concern. "If the euro rises, we know there's a threshold," he said. "At $1.40, it's perceived as too expensive."

(Unstated, but surely on his mind, are a different set of business issues for his European rail company owners if the euro should fall dramatically.)

The election-year curse, he believes, is less about consumer distraction than getting the attention of the press. "Elections hijack the media," he said. "It's election, election, election. We need the press to talk about destinations, fun and vacations."

Though not in the headlines of the consumer press -- at least not yet -- Langlois also has concerns about how the Olympics in London will affect his business. His sentiments are aligned with those of the European Tour Operators Association, which believes the Olympics deter more travelers than they attract.

In the final analysis, however, Langlois believes other, positive trends will prevail and that 2012 will be a good year. "The economy is still bad, but people are fed up with waiting to take a trip," he said. "They've decided to travel no matter what."

And for his business in particular, there are a few other silver linings.

"There are no high-speed trains in the U.S.," he said. "It's one of the rare industries [the U.S. doesn't] have. So, we're selling a European experience. Often, passengers couldn't care less what two points they're traveling between."

And finally, he's excited about Italo, Europe's first private high-speed train, scheduled to launch in March. Its backers include the CEOs of Ferrari and Tod's, a luxury leather goods company, and will reflect high design aesthetics and luxe touches.

To be sure, 2012 will have its challenges related to elections and our own economy, as well as Europe's. I do hope everything falls into place for Langlois, and that 2012 indeed becomes a year that can keep pace with the introduction of a Ferrari-influenced travel product.

Email Arnie Weissmann at [email protected] and follow him on Twitter.