In the Dec. 21 issue, I offered a few predictions about trends we can anticipate in the 2010s. My crystal ball was so full that its contents spilled over into this week's column. Herein, all the prognostications that didn't fit:
Suppliers' efforts to "rehabilitate" agent clients to direct bookers will be revealed.
It will probably come first from some recently fired or retired executive. But sometime in the decade to come -- sooner rather than later, I suspect -- we will have public testimony supporting the argument that some major suppliers have been competing with agents to take away the very clients initially brought to the supplier by agency sales and marketing efforts.
The veil covering "direct business" will be lifted in this decade, and agents will learn that supplier websites have been designed as information sites intended to lure away agency clients with special offers and the ability to use the site to do exclusive things such as sign up for restaurant reservations or shore excursions on cruise ships.
It will be revealed that the suppliers' goals are 50% direct business, not the "less than 5%-8%" most currently claim.
Computerized final documents will be seen as a not-so-subtle way to remind clients that booking is only a click away.
We will see a marked increase in the number of truly upscale all-inclusives.
There are two trends that are going to be pushing this growth area. We are seeing that a majority, about 60%, of online vacation searchers are looking for an all-inclusive opportunity.
Hoteliers, meanwhile, have become convinced that two of the advantages of an all-inclusive are a predictability of labor and operating costs and some significantly better operating margins than one would find at a traditional resort.
It actually turns out that inclusive resorts show a greater food and beverage profit than traditional resorts, with many guests choosing to eat less after "feasting" for the first day or two.
The watchword for the upscale market is not "cheap." They will never go there. But they are seeking "value," and it is going to be difficult for a la carte resorts to compete with the value of truly luxurious all-inclusives in the decade ahead.
River cruising will continue to outpace the growth of the cruise sector.
Construction and operating cost controls make it possible for under-150-passenger river ships to come in at a 50% lower per diem than most of the smaller, upscale cruise ships.
The perceived safety and convenience of sailing from town center to town center while always, each and every second, in sight of land makes us think river cruising is just not for seniors anymore.
One reason we see continued growth in this sector is that there are so many sources of potential new clients, many of them past cruisers. River boating is still in its infancy in terms of the ways in which these ships can differentiate themselves. No one owns the "best river boat cuisine" or "most creative shore excursion program" reputation. But in the decade ahead, one or two leaders will break away from the river pack. They will then own the most cost-efficient, convenient and relaxing way to truly see some of the smaller towns and villages in the destinations they serve.
Cruise lines will develop "value systems."
I think one or two cruise lines will find it advantageous to politicize their approach to onboard entertainment and services.
At present, cruise lines attempt to be all things to all people. But every sign would seem to indicate that Americans are not going to hold hands and sing "Kumbaya" together anytime soon. Conservatives and progressives might have different ideas about the kind of entertainment they enjoy while vacationing. And they will increasingly want to feel that they are vacationing with people who share their common values.
The significant growth of religious-based and -organized travel will continue. Many of these folks will be seeking products that offer "wholesome" entertainment reflecting the values they hold dear.
Other groups will support cruise products that break the traditional mold by offering edgy and provocative guest speakers and more sophisticated entertainment options than are currently available.
Currently, no cruise line, other than Disney" wears the "wholesome" mantle. It would be hard to identify an "edgy" or intellectually "progressive" line.
This will be Latin America's Decade of Eco-luxe.
Countries throughout the region are investing in upscale tourism with huge areas that feature biodiversity and natural habitats.
South America suffered less from lost wealth during the economic downturn than any other region of the world.
There will be a mingling of the concepts of ecologically pristine and "luxurious." Latin America will ride this wave, which isn't even scheduled to crest until just after the 2016 Olympics in Brazil.
We are entering the Renaissance of upscale train travel.
City center to city center at speeds that often match or beat comparable get-to-the-airport-and-fly times, high-speed train travel's time has come. Everyone in the world seems to get this but the U.S. and a few Third Worlders.
In a bit of rhetorical fantasy, England's transportation secretary, Andrew Adonis, is talking up a new series of rail links from London to the north at average speeds of 250 mph. Adonis has stated his ultimate goal of "ending all domestic air travel in Britain."
Perhaps that is where the airlines went wrong. Perhaps airlines were never meant to fly domestically.
Luxury will be sold on a limited basis.
The most misused industry term in 2009 was "spa." In 2010 it will be "luxurious."
We are in the process of analyzing the luxury traveler to death. But one simple thread of consistency likely to emerge in the new decade is the linking of true luxury and "limited access created just for you" exclusivity.
Think of the Strawberry Promise, a doughnut sold by the Krispy Kreme chain. It is a quite nice doughnut as those things go, but it has been elevated by the fact that Heathrow's new T5 Terminal is the only place on Earth where you can get the Promise.
The retail sector is ahead of the travel sector in understanding that limited-edition, only-available-at-this-location selling is a part of the new "limited availability" definition of true luxury. If anyone can have it, it is not luxurious. If any primate can order it with a click, it isn't luxurious.
Agents will have the ability in the coming decade to design and embrace limited-access experiences for affluents who just want to get away from what is well known and available to all. They want something, truth be told, that their neighbor can't get, and the travel seller who understands this is going to be well positioned to face the inevitable challenges ahead.
Contributing editor Richard Turen owns Churchill and Turen, a vacation-planning firm that has been named to Conde Nast Traveler's list of the World's Top Travel Specialists since the list began. Contact him at [email protected].