A former vice president of the United States, Dan Quayle, once opined that "the future will be better tomorrow." I sure hope he was right.
As we embark on a new decade, the winds of change are at our backs. Will the budget airlines be the only survivors, or will we see new startups called SouthUnited or BlueAmerican? Will someone launch a cruise ship whose most prominent feature is a weightiness that makes it impossible to leave its dock? An obese ship to echo its core demographic?
Will travel reservations made in cyberspace go up or down as they do now, flailing in a bout of no growth?
These are some of the trends we see in our consulting business. It is going to be a decade of never-ending experimentation and a general acceptance of the notion that those who continue with business as usual will find it increasingly difficult to survive to 2020.
Whether or not the future turns out to be "better tomorrow," my crystal ball is so full that it will take two issues to get through it all. Herein, the Future of Travel, Part 1:
Airplanes will become retail stores.
In the coming year, we will start to see airlines selling onboard products in the same way that movie theaters sell popcorn and candy. Purchasing onboard products will become an important component of the flying culture. Clients might actually choose one airline over another based on the items to be auctioned or sold in flight. But airlines will have to convince the public that "above the atmosphere" pricing beats the Internet every time.
Some smart marketer will sell discounted travel packages that save consumers enough to essentially pay for their flight. Purchase the item and you get a reimbursement check for your flight. Hotel stays, cruises and ski packages along with flight destination dining arrangements will be available at every seat.
On flights into Southern California, elective surgery will be sold at 30,000 feet.
The flyer will be profiled, surveyed and credited using in-seat, hand-held devices already in production. Shopping will be entertaining. And it will likely be the only "free" form of entertainment available.
Some major travel brands will disappear.
No names, but one of the major car rental firms, for example, has lost money in each of the past three years. Almost all the legacy airlines have been bankrupt, and a sudden and sustained spike in fuel prices could make things begin to disintegrate rapidly.
We will start to see hotels that cater to specific demographics.
Look for hotel lobbies to resemble social networking clubs for single business travelers.
In the Middle East, female- only hotels will cater to women who wish to travel without the now-mandatory male escort.
To attract younger business travelers, hotel chains will set up high-tech brands featuring networking and communications not available in the home. Think about interactive walls in each room for games, videoconferencing or theater-size screens.
The next hot hotel concept will be "traditional modernity." Tired of minimalist designs and uncomfortable lobbies, a lack of color and functionality, we will enter the decade of cool comforts. Traditional fabrics will make a return, and guests will be able to actually operate the few high-tech gadgets that appear in their rooms.
The pendulum will swing, and rooms, public areas and staff attitude will all be judged on the "this is really comfortable" principle rather than a hotel's "trendometer" score.
But in the decade ahead, hotels will still fail to understand how destructive it is to brand loyalty to charge as much for breakfast as for a discounted room.
Food gathering is over; the new cave person is an information gatherer.
The most successful travel agencies and travel providers will see their clients as infosponges, eager to soak up as much about their trip as possible. It will be seen as natural that the customer knows more about the trip than the planner. The planner will take on the responsibility of providing information to the info-sponges so they come back for more and more. This means that agencies will need to employ nontraditional "information detectives" to provide customers with proprietary information.
The spa industry will successfully develop the "quiet vacation" experience, drawing guests away from traditional hotels and resorts.
In the years ahead, I expect "the search for a quiet yet luxurious environment" to become the antidote for many stressed-out multitaskers.
Look for some research study to reach the conclusion that noise pollution is becoming overbearing to most of our clients. Our psyche is bombarded with noise constantly. It is difficult to enjoy a Caesar salad with Metallica coming at you through the restaurant's speaker system.
The beginning and end of virtually any serious vacation is jarring because of the noise and commotion associated with airports and the in-flight experience.
Spas will provide true serenity. Guests will be addressed in whispers. Massages might no longer be accompanied by "music." TVs will not be part of the vacation experience.
In the years ahead, our cumulative stress level will reach the point where the ultimate vacation experience will be the one that provides the most quiet.
Travel agents once again will show themselves to be incapable of launching any offensive of substance against Internet sellers.
Of course, it is foolish to offer your credit card to an outsourced or semi-travel-literate order-taker on some website. But travel land is where the travel sheep dwell, and the only real challenges to Internet engine growth will come from the suppliers themselves.
This will lead us ever closer to net rates, an even playing field that will create a David and Goliath distribution scenario with none but a biblical hope that David can persevere.
Agents will likewise absolutely fail to make the consumer understand that a direct booking is a form of consumer fraud, since the agent's services are included in the cost and the consumer is not receiving those services.
We will see the advent of a truly reflective and chaotic travel brand.
We are entering a decade that is going to be characterized by chaotic, connected, diverse and "nonruthless" corporate success stories.
For examples, look to Apple, Amazon, Zappos and Google. Virgin and JetBlue seem to understand where we are going. It is a road where those who survive and thrive have a sense that business as usual doesn't cut it anymore. Which travel brands will catch this wind and the business that follows? Look to the hotel sector first. And know that sustainability will become more and more important, and the hotel industry is best poised to play in that arena.
Part 2: The future gets better next time.
Contributing editor Richard Turen owns Churchill and Turen, a vacation-planning firm that has been named to Conde Nast Traveler's list of the World's Top Travel Specialists since the list began. Contact him at rturen@travelweekly.com.
