It doesn't take a ton of insight to surmise that the most rapid changes in the travel-technology industry stem from two related areas: peer-to-peer sharing services and the expansion of the use of mobile devices in all aspects of the travel experience, from research to booking; real-time navigation to and through destinations; and guidance to all manner of points of interest.
And those uses of mobile technology are only a hint of what is likely to come in 2015.
In the U.S., the dollar value of bookings via mobile devices, which include smartphones and tablet computers, were projected to surge more than sixfold, from $6.1 billion in 2012 to $39.5 billion in 2015. If that prediction holds, it will mean that mobile will account for 12% of the total domestic travel market next year, according to Phocuswright.
Meanwhile, shared-economy services such as Airbnb and Uber are moving many travelers away from conventional hotels, taxicabs and shuttle services toward private accommodations and ride providers.
The share of American travelers using private residences is surging as technological advances enable the private sector to compete against the hoteliers' larger-scale booking machines while making it easier for smartphone-toting travelers to seek out such accommodations.
The percentage of American travelers using private residences jumped to 14% in 2013, from 8% in 2010, Phocuswright reported earlier this year. And judging by an equity round this year that valued Airbnb at more than $10 billion, that percentage will be substantially higher by next year.
Meanwhile, Uber has grown sixfold in the past year and is now offering private ride services in 250 cities worldwide.
Still, not all of the impending tech-related changes to travel are tied directly to mobile. Here are some of the developments that could wring in changes in 2015:
• Some consolidation could be in order, especially in the ride-hailing market. Uber is the big player here (the company in December received a $1.2 billion funding round that valued it at about $41 billion), followed up by Lyft. Either company could gobble up Sidecar and/or GrabTaxi. The latter company just received a $250 million equity investment from SoftBank Corp., but that may be as much an acquisition-target play as it is an expansion effort.
• More cities will join San Francisco and Portland, Ore., in reaching agreements with Airbnb for collection of occupancy taxes. On that note, the line in many U.S. markets will continue to blur between conventional taxi and limousines services and private ride-hailing services such as Uber and Lyft, as more cities invest in technology that enables more equal competition for potential riders.
• Despite an easing of adversity in the occupancy tax area, regulators and trade groups will continue to take a somewhat confrontational approach with private-accommodation and private-ride companies, especially in union-heavy cities like New York and Chicago.
• 2015 may be the year when Expedia, which took over Travelocity's back-end operations earlier this year, will buy it outright from Sabre, giving Expedia about 60% of the U.S. online travel agency (OTA) market.
• Priceline, which has been an active acquirer the past couple of years -- buying Kayak for $1.8 billion in 2012 and paying $2.6 billion for OpenTable this year -- might step back from that role, instead delving further into the private-accommodations market, as Expedia has done with its expanded listings with HomeAway. The question is: Will Priceline start including some Airbnb listings?
• TripAdvisor will continue to increase its exposure to the transaction side of the market as the travel-review site looks to win a bigger cut of its readers' and writers' travel spend. Look for a deeper partnership with Orbitz, which has been the odd OTA out since Travelocity was essentially taken over by Expedia. And on the user-review front, Yelp is ripe for either an acquisition or a collaboration with one of the larger travel-tech companies looking to monetize that readership.
• When Kayak CEO Steve Hafner was asked on a panel at November's Phocuswright conference which competitor he feared the most, he replied, "Google." Take that as a warning sign that the search engine leader has yet to make its largest impact on the travel distribution space. Amazon and Alibaba are also showing interest in that arena, but Google remains the sleeping giant.
• On the opposite end of the spectrum, FlightCar has been a relatively low-profile entrant into the sharing economy with its peer-to-peer car-sharing service operating out of airports (no airport counters, all done online), but the company added five U.S. airports in late 2014 to bring its total to nine and will likely add many more next year.
• Finally, there are few combinations that can give rise to greater profits than the pairing of marijuana and technology. With that in mind, look for a broadening of the number of mobile apps that specialize in locating places to buy and/or consume pot. Additionally, as legalization expands, watch for one of the home-based rental services such as Airbnb and HomeAway to break out special sections for weed-friendly accommodations. All in the name of green.