NEW YORK -- Although a recovery in travel to Europe that started
last fall took a hit earlier this year thanks to the war in Iraq,
officials with the European Travel Commission (ETC) here said
they're cautiously optimistic the rebound can be restarted and the
summer peak season salvaged.
"We expected a dip, but to be honest we thought it was going to
be worse than it was," said Rob Franklin, U.S. chairman of the
33-nation organization.
"Everyone thought this year would be totally lost, but there
seems to be quite a strong, pent-up demand."
U.S. Department of Commerce figures cited by the ETC showed
monthly growth in transatlantic, off-peak air travel of between
13.6% and 28% from October through January -- until the war
intervened, contributing to dips of 11.2% in March, 11.7% in April,
a possible 10% in May and perhaps 5% in June.
Those progressively smaller losses -- recorded as hostilities
ended and summer approached -- encouraged the ETC to project a
resumption of growth in July and a possible gain for the entire
2003 peak season, which runs through September.
"While recovery is slow, we appear to be heading in the right
direction," said Franklin, though he acknowledged a poor U.S.
economy, paired with a strong euro and shrunken air capacity, posed
challenges.
And although the 5.13 million off-season trips Americans took to
Europe from last October through April represented a gain of 7.5%
compared with the same period a year earlier, the figure still fell
short of the record 6.34 million off-peak trips taken in winter
2000-2001.
But Franklin contended there may be little value now in
comparing any post-9/11 season with figures from the halcyon boom
times of the past.
"There's no doubt traffic will not be as good as it was in 2000,
but we've got to get used to the idea that world events now can
change things," he said.
Encouraging trends include shorter but more frequent trips by
U.S. travelers, recent air fare sales and more creative marketing,
booking and deal-scouting by U.S. retailers, Franklin said.
"What we're seeing is a very professional travel agency now
presenting itself to the customer," he said. "It's good to see the
trade responding to the market the way it has been."
To contact reporter Kenneth Kiesnoski, send e-mail to [email protected].