WASHINGTON -- All of the major U.S. airlines reported their May
traffic numbers last week, and those people looking for the silver
lining could find it in increased load factors for most of the
carriers.
The cloud is that, for most of them, the load factors rose only
because their capacity cuts exceeded their traffic declines.
Exceptions to that general rule were Alaska and America West, both
of which reported substantial traffic increases for the month.
The SARS effect showed up in large traffic and capacity declines
for Pacific routes. United, for example, saw Pacific traffic fall
47% on a 39.8% cut in capacity, and Northwest saw it fall 25.9% on
a 13.3% capacity cut.
A closer look at the May traffic numbers follows, with all
figures compared with the same month last year:
• Alaska, up 11.2% on a 4.6% capacity increase, for a 4.2-point
increase in load factor, to 69.9%.
• American, down 4.8% on a 10.1% capacity cut, for a 4.1-point
increase in load factor, to 73.7%.
• America West, up 6.7% on a 2.5% capacity increase, for a 3.1-
point increase in load factor, to 78.6%.
• Continental, down 6.3% on a 9.2% capacity cut, for a 2.4-point
increase in load factor, to 75.9%.
• Delta, down 9.4% on a 12.5% capacity cut, for a 2.6-point
increase in load factor, to 74.3%.
• Northwest, down 12.8% on an 8.9% capacity cut, for a 3.4-point
drop in load factor, to 75.4%.
• Southwest, up 3.2% on a 3.9% capacity increase, for an 0.5-point
drop in load factor, to 69.2%.
• United, down 13.8% on an 18.3% cut in capacity, for a 4-point
increase in load factor, to 77.2%.
• US Airways, down 11.9% on an 11.8% capacity cut, for an 0.1-point
decrease in load factor, to 73.5%.
Another positive sign, perhaps, for the airlines, is that
Continental estimated its year-over-year revenue per available seat
mile increased 1% -- to 3% -- in May. That compares with a 1.1%
decline in April and would represent the first year-over-year
increase since January. The May RASM, however, still is 3% to 5%
lower than in 2001.
How do the major airlines' traffic numbers compare with some of
the smaller low-cost carriers? Consider this: Air Tran's traffic
rose 16.8% on a 14.9% capacity increase, for a 1.1-point increase
in load factor, to 72.1%, and JetBlue traffic increased 74.1% on a
69.3% increase in capacity, for a 2.3-point increase in load
factor, to 84.9%.
Frontier, which saw traffic rise 27.5% on a 21.5% capacity
increase, for a 3-point increase in load factor, to 65%. (Its
average fare, however, fell 3.7%, to $104.)
Sean Menke, Frontier's vp-marketing and planning, said he
believes Frontier's traffic increase can be attributed in part to a
May 4 schedule change that increased frequency in its more popular
markets.
He also credited a fare-structure change the airline made
earlier this year, and said summer bookings are showing an increase
in demand.