ust wait until the release of that
"pent-up demand" for travel by Americans with unrealized
wanderlust. So went the rallying call of beleaguered operators and
agents alike during the worst of times for a troubled travel
industry.
Well, guess what? The wait is over.
Tauck World Discovery, for one, is experiencing the lift. Tauck
had timed its move to new headquarters for July 1, expecting
mid-summer bookings to Europe to have tapered off with the start of
the July blahs. Instead, conventional wisdom was turned on its head
as business began to surge when the Iraq war cooled down, and it
hasn't let up since.
"The week after July 4, transatlantic bookings were up 381% over
the year before," a Tauck spokeswoman said.
"Hundreds of people a week are going to Europe, which we
couldn't give away for a while."
Tauck is not alone in seeing clients unfurl their wallets and
pack their bags for vacation trips long postponed due to the
uncertainties of a listless economy, SARS, the threat of terrorism
and the war in the Middle East.
Bob Whitley, president of the U.S. Tour Operators Association,
said the surge in bookings was widespread among his group's
members.
Saddam, the fallen idol
"It started with images on TV of that statue of Saddam Hussein
coming down, indicating that the war was over," Whitley said.
"Great bargains out there are spurring a lot of activity. People
are just tired of sitting back. They want to go, but they want the
deals."
Trafalgar Tours president John Severini said his company also
was ahead of the curve.
"We started seeing our surge in April, when we launched our $1
companion air-fare promotion," he said.
Destination Europe reported July figures consistently are up 20%
to 25% over last year, even surpassing 2000.
And this rush to get moving is not limited to Europe.
"The people on the phone were going nuts," according to John
Stachnik, president of Mayflower Tours, which handles mostly North
American travel; meanwhile, Gogo Worldwide Vacations saw its
Caribbean, Mexico and Hawaii products fly off the shelf.
Eileen Kennedy, vice president of regional marketing for Gogo,
calls it "the peak season we didn't have."
"Our offices are extremely busy, but we are thrilled because
it's what everybody has been waiting for," she said.
At Tauck, the recovery came so fast and furious that it was a
challenge to accommodate it. Employee meetings and vacations, for
example, were postponed. The company had to bend its normal policy
of returning unused hotel allotments 45 days from departure.
"The biggest struggle -- what caught us off guard -- was that we
had released a fair amount of our allotments, not expecting such a
last-minute phenomenon," said Peter Tauck, president of Tauck
Holdings, the parent of Tauck World Discovery. "Part of the problem
was making sure we had enough hotel inventory to accommodate
everyone."
Air space also was tight: "Sometimes it was difficult, but we
never lost a sale over it," Tauck said.
Feeling the crunch
Maupintour also experienced a crunch. "A lot of the bookings are
last minute," said April Merenda, vice president of sales and
marketing. "We had released space, but then people called three
weeks prior to departure and were ready to go. When we couldn't
accommodate them on escorted tours, we offered them FIT
packages."
On the other hand, operators report that the recovery in Asia
began later, with the declaration by the World Health Organization
in early July that SARS had been contained.
Asia's comeback has been more tentative, however.
"Pacific Delight [Tours] has seen an increase," a company
spokesman said, "but it has been more of a ramp-up than
floodgates."
And, according to Andrew McKey, executive vice president of Far
& Wide, "There has been a substantial rebound from the levels
during the war, an overall positive comparison to last year. But
Asia, year-over-year, is down dramatically."
Suspicious minds
Another cloud looming over this industry's recent surge is a
disquieting suspicion voiced by many tour operators that the boom
to Europe and other destinations could be short-lived.
They fear that brisk summer business, driven by unsustainable
pricing, could take a toll on first-quarter travel plans.
"There is definitely some uncertainty out there," Whitley said.
"Right now, things look good, but the way this industry has gone
and this year has gone, you never know."
Harry Dalgaard, president of Avanti Destinations, asked, "Is the
surge sustainable? I don't know. Will we ever return to former
levels?
"Eventually, but no time soon. There are too many factors:
economic, terrorism, the whole bit. The economy still is a big
factor. We have the highest unemployment in a decade."
For Apple Vacations, doubts about the economy also temper the
business euphoria, according to the firm's executive vice
president, Tim Mullen.
"It's the only thing we're facing now," he said. "It's not fear
of flying or SARS."
And while Brennan Tours' president Robert Brennan projects a
good year for his company, "If something else comes about, we could
be back to where we were. We have to be prepared for that. I'm
optimistic -- very cautiously."
Maupintour's Merenda also expressed a degree of caution.
"There's still going to be a cloud. The government just announced a
fear of another hijacking attempt in August or September. When they
make comments like that, it doesn't help. I don't see 2004 as a
banner year. It will be better than 2003, but you're going to have
to have staying power."
For Peter Tauck, however, the summer surge confirms his
confidence in a recovery.
"I thought the business would be slow in coming back," he said.
"But this comeback is a great indicator for 2004 being a more
stable year for us and the entire industry -- unless one of the
elements of the 'perfect storm' rears its ugly head.
"But the skies are starting to clear. Maybe we'll be stronger as
a result of weathering the storm."
To contact reporter David Cogswell, send e-mail to [email protected].