ust before Labor Day, I asked a few
people how business looks for the rest of the year. My unscientific
survey finds the outlook promising.
Robin Tauck of Tauck World Discovery said bookings have
rebounded significantly, particularly to Europe and North America.
A surge of late bookings drove Tauck's business up 46% over the
same period last year. Among the winners for the fall: the national
parks, New England and eastern Canada.
Phil Bakes, who runs the Far & Wide tour operator group,
said current booking levels are consistently up year-over-year by
an average of 10%.
"Escorted travel, which tends to be more late boomers and
seniors than early boomers ... is booking unusually late for the
typically peak Europe travel months of September and October, which
means there still is time to fill up some motorcoaches and
riverboats," Bakes says.
"Typically, by mid-August, booking activity from escorted
travelers was limited to winter or following-year itineraries, not
trips scheduled to leave in a couple of weeks."
Bakes said that China is coming back, with bookings running
above the same time last year. He also cited the South Pacific and
Latin America as two regions with strong booking patterns.
Ron Letterman, chairman of Classic Custom Vacations, a unit of
Expedia, also underscored the shorter lead times.
"The booking window continues to get shorter as the airlines and
hotels train consumers to wait for last-minute deals," he said.
"This will change only when the industry benefits the consumers
who are willing to commit their plans well in advance with prices
that are guaranteed to be lower than last-minute prices. In good
times, last-minute prices generally are higher. In soft times,
last-minute deals are the norm."
On the retail side, Lucy Hirleman of Berkshire Travel in
Newfoundland, N.J., said her advance bookings for the fall are
running about 15% ahead of last year. Hirleman's cruise business is
strong, coming in within 45 to 60 days of departure. Noting that
cruise lines are "practically giving it away," she said that her
agency is promoting only luxury and premium cruises.
Retail business is picking up around the country. American
Express reported strong cruise and international air bookings, and
Diane Embree of Michaels Travels in Southern California said that
"people are just waiting longer to book big trips."
"I'm getting mainly Australia and South Pacific bookings, but
some Europe and Asia, too," she said. "I've had two separate
bookings for the Cook Islands within the last couple of weeks --
usually I only get inquiries for the Cooks a few times a year."
She's also booking Bali and Thailand and fielding inquiries for
Vietnam and Cambodia.