Based on below-average storm activity in
August -- typically one of the Atlantic hurricane seasons peak
months -- forecasters William Gray and Philip Klotzbach at Colorado
State University are significantly reducing their 2006 forecast.
We expect slightly
above-average activity in September and that October will likely
have below-average activity. We now predict that total seasonal
activity will be slightly below the long-term average, the forecast
stated.
The revised
forecast calls for 13 named storms with five storms reaching
hurricane strength, and two of those storms expected to be Category
3 or higher, with wind speeds of 111 mph or more. .
The original
forecast called for an active [2006 season], with 17 named storms,
of which nine will reach hurricane strength, and of those, five
will be between Category 3 and Category 5 storms, said Gray, head
of the Dept. of Atmospheric Science at Colorado State
University.
The National
Hurricane Center also recently downgraded its projections for the
2006 Atlantic hurricane season to 12 to 15 named storms, of which
seven to nine would become hurricanes, including three or four
becoming major hurricanes with winds of 111 mph or higher. The
original forecast called for 13 to 16 named storms.
The average is 10
named storms and two hurricanes, with two reaching at least
Category 3 strength. In comparison, the 2005 Atlantic hurricane
season set several records with 28 storms (including one unnamed
storm) and 15 hurricanes -- seven reaching major or intense status,
including Emily, Katrina, Rita and Wilma, all Category 5
storms.
So far, the 2006
Atlantic season has been relatively quiet with just five named
storms, including Ernesto, which teetered briefly just over
hurricane status before striking Florida as a tropical storm and
moving up the East Coast and making a second landfall in North
Carolina.
The 2006 Atlantic
season lineup: Alberto, Beryl, Chris, Debby and Ernesto are already
in the books. Still to come are Florence, Gordon, Helene, Isaac,
Joyce, Kirk, Leslie, Michael, Nadine, Oscar, Patty, Rafael, Sandy,
Tony, Valerie and William.
Meanwhile, for
those keeping track of the Pacific season (which started May 15 and
ends Nov. 30), already down are Aletta, Bud, Carlotta, Daniel,
Emilia, Fabio, Gilma, Hector, Ileana, John and Kristy. Still in the
wings are Lane, Miriam, Norman, Olivia, Paul, Rosa, Sergio, Tara,
Vicente, Willa, Xavier, Yolanda and Zeke.
The National
Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration forecasted a below-average
season in the Pacific as well, with 12 to 16 named storms (average
is 15 to 16) and six to eight becoming hurricanes (average is
nine), and of those, one to three reaching the major hurricane
threshold (average is 4 to 5).
To contact
TravelWeekly.coms managing editor Kimberly Scholz, send e-mail to
[email protected].
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