Friday’s attacks in Paris that left 129 dead, combined with
the recent memory of the Charlie Hebdo attack in January, will likely be enough
to keep some tourists away from the city for at least the immediate future, a
political scientist at the Rand Corporation predicted.
“I think even with a destination as desirable as Paris, when
you have a string of incidents like this, you’re definitely going to have
people that are going to choose to spend their tourism dollars elsewhere,
there’s no doubt about that — places where they think, perhaps, they’ll be a
bit more secure,” said Colin Clarke, whose research focuses on insurgency and
counterinsurgency, unconventional warfare and other security challenges.
Attacks like those in France are a deterrent for some
potential visitors, who might be more inclined to travel to a country that has
not made similar headlines recently, like Ireland or Spain, Clarke said.
“[A potential terrorist attack] is definitely something, I
think, that enters people’s minds, particularly Americans,” he said. “I mean,
we were hit so hard on 9/11, it’s got to be a factor when you’re planning a
trip. And when you have a city like Paris that’s been victimized now with two
really high-profile events in the same year, I don’t see how it doesn’t become
a huge factor in determining where you’re going to go.”
Clarke also predicted this type of attack — in which
terrorists mainly target concentrated areas of people, in this case, a concert
venue and a soccer match — will become more common.
“It’s tactically effective for these groups. They get to
kill large numbers of people,” he said.
In the immediate aftermath of the attacks, Paris will
continue to see a visible presence of a well-armed French military, Clarke
said, “if nothing other than to psychologically attempt to reassure people.”
He saw that in person on a recent trip to Paris in April,
after the Charlie Hebdo attacks.
“The French military presence on the streets was definitely
palpable,” he said.
Clarke also said there will be more going on in Paris that won’t
be seen, like an increase in plainclothes law enforcement officers and
increased security on major transportation like the Metro.
“Even with all that said, and I’ve spoken to a lot of my
colleagues about this, the French security services are known to be among the
most elite in the world,” Clarke said. “There’s only so much you can do in a democracy
if you’re going to live the way that Westerners want to live.”