While the near- to long-term business impact of the Paris
attacks weighs heavily on the travel industry now, recent research provided by
the World Travel and Tourism Council (WTTC) suggests there’s hope for a
relatively quick recovery.
The WTTC analyzed four categories of crisis and compared
the average tourism recovery time for each. Looking at the impact of disease,
environmental disaster, political turmoil and terrorism, the group found that
in the wake of terrorist attacks, it usually takes destinations between two and
22 months to return to pre-attack tourism numbers, with an average recovery
time of 13 months.
By comparison, it takes destinations, on average, 21.3
months to recover from disease outbreaks, 23.8 months to recover from an
environmental disaster and 26.7 months to recover from political turmoil.
“Based on our analysis of impacts at the country level,
previous large-scale terrorist attacks in major European capitals — Madrid in
2004 and London in 2005 — have had a decidedly limited impact on overall
tourism to the country,” the WTTC said.
According to the international organization of travel
industry executives, in the case of the 2004 train bombings in Madrid, which
killed 191 people, arrivals to Spain recovered to pre-bombing levels within
weeks. Following a series of suicide attacks in London in 2005 in which 52
people were killed and scores injured, there was no notable impact on tourist
arrivals to the U.K.
“We expect Paris to return quickly to normal visitor
levels after the crisis passes and when the situation settles down,” the WTTC
stated.
The group added that while it does expect Paris’s tourism
industry to be negatively impacted, based on its research and analysis, it also
anticipates that the impact will be short-lived.
“We expect destinations where tourists were not
specifically targeted, such as Paris, to recover rapidly after the initial
shock of the terrible incidents has passed,” a WTTC spokesperson said.
The organization noted that the impact from natural
disasters is often more drawn out because they often involve infrastructure and
structural damage that take more time to rebuild.
Ultimately, numerous factors can help or hurt a
destination that is trying to get back on its feet after a crisis, according to
the WTTC. These include whether the destination responds quickly and
communicates its efforts clearly; how transparent the destination is about
updates and developments; and whether that information is readily made
available to the industry and to travelers.
“Potential travelers tend to be skeptical of messages of
‘business as usual,’ ” the WTTC stated. “Better to be transparent about
problems and make it clear that the destination wants tourists to come back,
regardless of the situation.”