The Gilda Radner character Roseanne Roseannadanna famously said, "It's always something!" I feel the same frustration just now with the state of retail travel sales over these past few years.
Most of the retail channel is still reeling from the impact of Covid-19. A study my former agency fielded in April 2020 pointed to the likely changes and trends the channel would see. It turned out to be prophetic in its short-term predictions:
- The leisure-traveling public would not resume taking vacations until three elements were in place: a proven Covid-19 vaccine; a decrease in new cases to near zero; and at least two cycles of the illness to give the traveling public a sense of its seasonality.
- Cruising from U.S. ports would not resume until July or August 2021 (remember, this was April 2020).
- The target demographic for cruising would be women 45 years old and up who had taken more than three cruises.
- There would be a higher level of direct bookings, especially with Carnival Cruise Line, Royal Caribbean International and Norwegian Cruise Line.
- New-to-cruise percentages prevalent at the turn of the century would likely not be seen for another decade.
- The economic trauma of two job-security events (the Great Recession and the Covid pandemic) would preclude millennials and the youngest Gen Xers from booking big-ticket vacations (anything above $5,000), probably until 2029.
We initiated cost-control savings on every front. We transitioned to a virtual agency from brick-and-mortar to save several thousand dollars a month in office rent.
And it all worked. Bookings for June 2021 were spectacular. July was almost as good.
Then the delta variant hit, and we went back to square one.
Domestic travel and land packages to the Caribbean and Mexican Riviera partially backfilled for cruise bookings, and we eked out a subsistence income to pay our employees but not ourselves.
I grudgingly conceded as I reached my 80th orbit of the sun that it was time to pass the torch, and we sold our brand name, Just Cruisin' Plus, to an agency that almost uncannily paralleled ours in every respect. Their first assurance to us was that they would keep our employees.
Then omicron smashed the few building blocks that were going back into place.
And, as if all this weren't enough, we now have Russian aggression against Ukraine disrupting leisure travel. Even before Russia invaded Ukraine, we began receiving inquiries about Scandinavia-Russia cruises that called in St. Petersburg, wondering whether they'd be affected. At first I chuckled to myself that clients were conflating "Balkans" with "Baltic," but I realized with the fourth or fifth call that they were not as confused as I thought.
We now know that all cruise ship calls to St. Petersburg have been canceled. Most lines, at the time this is written, have not published what their alternate ports will be. It turns out that calling in St. Petersburg was the reason that many chose the itinerary, leading to the cancellation of thousands of dollars' worth of cruises.
And now, we are beginning to see indications that those who had booked cruises and land tours in Scandinavia and on the west coast of Norway are increasingly concerned about what will happen. Of greater concern, those who had begun exploring western Norway cruises and tours have abandoned further planning.
First-quarter cash flow has always been problematic for most leisure agencies. I think Q1 of 2022 will be one we remember for a while, and not for the right reasons.
It's like this: Owners need to define clearly the demographics and psychographics of their client base, decide which brands fit those metrics and vigorously pursue marketing support funds from those suppliers.
And leisure agency owners must have a clear vision about which suppliers they want to support. Criteria will vary; personally, I wouldn't include ones that now book over half their business direct.
This should all suffice until the next "it's always something" moment comes along.