In the last month, executives of two GDS vendors have stated that the GDS "financial model" needs to change. That model is the charging of high booking fees to airlines and other suppliers in order to subsidize the payment of booking bonuses to travel agencies.

Do you think change is coming and, if so, what can my agency do to lock in a steady stream of good bonuses?

A: I am highly skeptical that there will be much of a change, for several reasons.

First, the model cited by the executives is largely fiction. Most agencies get no or very small booking bonuses, as they do not have the productivity, clout and size to obtain the attractive offers larger firms do.

Even the amount paid out to the larger firms probably is tiny in relation to the GDS vendors' total booking fee revenue.

Second, the four vendors and their predecessors have been engaged in fierce competition for a generation, and there is no reason to think that rhetoric will turn into action as long as one vendor decides to adhere to the status quo.

Every few years, one vendor proclaims there will be no more signing bonuses for renewals, and then reverses itself after six months due to the loss of market share.

Third, there is no meaningful alternative to GDS service and I doubt there ever will be, despite suppliers' efforts to develop "direct connections."

Agencies want and need a single portal for all suppliers -- not a desktop icon for each supplier. Why the technology experts don't understand this is a mystery to me.

Nevertheless, I could be wrong, so it would be prudent for larger and highly productive agencies to try to lock in new five-year contracts at today's bonus levels.

For example, if you have two years to go on your five-year contract, consider starting now to negotiate a new contract, rather than waiting a year.

If you have just a year left, plan to expedite your decision-making rather than taking the whole year to make a decision and sign a contract.

Also, consider five-year rather than three-year terms, in case bonus plans are not as good in three years.

If you run into booking shortfalls in years four and five, the vendors would probably renegotiate, and if you go out of business, it probably will be just as easy to terminate a five-year contract as a three-year deal.

Mark Pestronk is a Fairfax, Va.-based attorney specializing in travel law. He answers your questions in the TWCrossroads Legal Ease forum. To contact Mark directly, e-mail him at [email protected]

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