Andrea Zelinski
The first thing a friend said to me when I told him I was traveling to Mexico last month was, it might not be safe. It was shortly after the Mexican military killed Nemesio Ruben Oseguera Cervantes, a powerful drug lord known as "El Mencho," on Feb. 22 in Jalisco state. After his death, members of the cartel retaliated with violence, including burning vehicles and blocking roads in tourist-heavy Puerto Vallarta and elsewhere.
No tourists were harmed, and government officials said within days order was restored. But the damage was done. Several agencies said bookings dropped for Mexico, including at Envoyage and ALG.
Bookings fell by about 40% at CruisingStore for all of Mexico in the first two weeks, according to its CEO, Dwain Wall. The company sells Mexico and Caribbean land vacations in addition to cruises, with Mexico accounting for more than 20% of its business. Puerto Vallarta, on Mexico's west coast, was the hardest hit, he said.
Dwain Wall Photo Credit: Courtesy of Dwain Wall
Even cruises have been affected "pretty significantly," Wall said. While short cruises have been resilient, demand for longer voyages calling in Mexico is down, he said. Between cancellations shortly after the incident and softer demand, he said he expects cruises to Mexico to be down 10% for the year.
On land, some clients canceled, others kept their travel plans and some shifted their plans to the Caribbean. As a result, CruisingStore's Caribbean bookings are up 50% year over year.
Six weeks later, demand is now "kind of back to normal," Wall said. Bookings on the West Coast of Mexico are soft, which he attributes to travelers' wariness of Puerto Vallarta. He said he expects business for Mexico's West Coast will be down as much as 30% for the year. Across all of Mexico, he expects business to be down 20% by the end of 2026.
Reactions evolve
"The human psyche is what we have to deal with. We can't control what our customers want to do," Wall said.
He breaks down customers' reactions to the cartel incident into three phases: shock was the first after seeing the news of burning cars, leading some to say they'll never go to Mexico again. The second phase was relocation, when travelers changed their travel plans from Mexico to the Caribbean, such as Jamaica and the Dominican Republic. Phase 2 has passed now, he said. (By the way, Wall said the biggest threat to Mexico's tourism industry is travelers changing their travel plans to visit the Caribbean and falling in love with a new destination and not returning to Mexico.)
Now, is Phase 3: "normalization" for most of Mexico's bookings. "Confidence is returning pretty quickly, except for Puerto Vallarta. It's the only one. We still have a lot of nervous customers about it."
Bookings for Cabo, which is also along the West Coast but situated on the Baja Peninsula, have also softened. But Wall predicts business will pick up as more from the U.S. West Coast see Cabo as a nearby alternative to Puerto Vallarta. Travelers from the U.S. East Coast, he said, are shifting more to the Caribbean because it's closer.
Now what?
What does Mexico need now? No more bad news, said Wall. He suggested discounted pricing for hotels and tours by 15% to 20% to keep customers coming and destinations stepping up advertising for a few months to show the destination as fun and safe, with friendly people and amazing food.
"The biggest issue they've got is first-time Mexico travelers. Those are the ones that are going to be fearful. They don't know what they don't know, what to expect," he said.
That is where advisors come in. Wall suggested reaching out to clients about their upcoming Mexico travel plans instead of waiting for them to reach out to you.
"Don't sit on your hands and hope that the customer never calls you. … Call them instead, interact with them, show them that you care, that you're going to resolve it," he said.
Wall concluded by saying that while none of us know for sure what the future holds for Jalisco state or the entire country of Mexico, reaching out does say one thing: "I want you to know as a customer that I'm here for you."