Forced into longer routes to avoid restricted airspace over the Middle East, commercial airlines could be paying an extra $8.4 billion as a result from May through August, according to jet fuel logistics company i6 Group.
That would be on top of the $2.6-$3.9 billion extra that airlines paid in the first 60 days of the Iran war.
i6 produced its estimates based on transactions at airports where i6 manages fueling, then multiplied by a factor of 10 to 15 to represent global scale.
Airlines are continuing to avoid Iranian airspace, instead flying north through the Caucuses and Turkiye or south over Saudi Arabia on Asia-Europe routes. The i6 analysis says the reroutings have increased fuel requirements by 2.5% on average for widebody aircraft and by 9.3% for single-aisle planes, which have smaller fuel tanks.
The company expects the problem to worsen in the summer, when load factors are expected to be higher and flight frequencies increase.
If the Iran war persists and reroutings continue, i6 estimates extra fuel costs industrywide from $5.6-$8.4 billion from May through August.