Johanna Jainchill
Amid what seems to be a relentless onslaught of bad headlines this year -- about war, disease and general chaos -- at least one segment of the economy has produced some very good news lately: the travel industry.
Earlier this week, CoStar and Tourism Economics made a significant upward revision to its 2026 U.S. hotel forecast at the NYU International Hospitality Industry Investment Forum. This came after a year in which RevPAR had declined for the first time since 2020 -- and before that 2009, during the Great Recession. The revised forecast now projects RevPAR to grow 2.8% this year, up from a prior estimate of just 0.6%.
The change was driven by an increase in demand by more than 8 million room nights year over year through the first four months of 2026, during a time when the U.S. went to war with Iran, the partial government shutdown caused massive lines at many U.S. airports and oil prices surged.
And as my colleague Christina Jelski reported, FIFA World Cup-related demand didn't even play a role in the upward revision, having already been baked into the previous forecast.
That compounded news from Marriott CEO Anthony Capuano in early May, who said the company was seeing "continued strength, really across all the tiers where we operate."
A report from Bank of America, released in early May, found that "summer travel plans appear resilient overall, despite higher oil and gasoline prices." The bank's 2026 Summer Travel Outlook said more Americans were planning to travel this summer compared to the past two summers: 77%, versus 74% in '25 and 72% in '24. There was also a big jump in people going abroad: 24% of those with travel plans will visit Europe this summer, up from 14% in 2025.
The data doesn't suggest that Americans are immune to the challenges of the moment. (Bank of America found that lower-income households are much less likely to have travel plans and that the top reasons to not travel are affordability and uncertainty).
But what the report does reinforce is the idea that has been so strong since people began traveling again after the pandemic: travel is a priority.
Among the reasons BofA gave for the positive travel outlook is that many households received meaningfully larger tax refunds in 2026 than in 2025 (due to stimulus from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act). And the bank's internal data suggests that many of the households receiving these refunds have been spending them on airlines and lodging.
Its data also shows that the trend toward travel for major events is not only keeping pace but that people are willing to sacrifice in other areas of their life to have those experiences. Sixty-one percent of Americans are willing to make some sort of financial trade-off in order to afford a trip to a live entertainment event, including cutting back on dining out and taking on a "side hustle."
BofA also found that rather than cancel vacations, consumers are adjusting by taking shorter trips, choosing closer destinations and seeking better value. This is something a recent report from MasterCard also found: While geopolitical conflict has shaped routes, costs and safety perceptions, "the impulse to travel endures. Familiar motivations like climate, cuisine and culture still matter."
Widening window
Another encouraging sign I have been hearing about is that the booking window, which had contracted to levels not seen in years in 2025, has been extending.
The Bank of America report said one reason the impact of higher energy prices on summer travel appeared to be relatively limited was that more people had locked in summer travel plans: 47% of survey respondents, compared to 38% in 2025.
And in late April at Travel Weekly's Hawaii Leadership Forum, Rachel Bird, Expedia's vice president of North America market management, said the company was seeing the booking window increase, particularly in the 60-day-plus time frame. "Not only are they shopping further in advance, they're actually booking further in advance."
Avanti Destinations CEO Paul Barry told me that the custom tour operator expects 2026 to be its best year ever and that people are booking a lot further in advance. "The mindset has changed for a lot of international travelers," he said. "The idea of just turning up last minute and winging it doesn't work."
When writing last year's Year in Review story, where we looked back at the top stories of 2025, I said that the travel industry's word of the year might have been "choppy," a term used by CEOs of major cruise lines, hotel brands and large travel agencies. The uncertain state of the economy and politics seemed to diminish consumer confidence and people put off making long-term plans.
While it's hard to argue the state of the world is better now, consumers have perhaps gotten accustomed to the noise and decided to not let it deter them from what's important to them.
And travel, again and again, seems to be at the top of that list.