Johanna Jainchill
Not since the onset of the Covid pandemic in 2020 has the global travel industry been so shaken by an event as it has by the Iran war.
With tens of thousands of flights canceled, scenes of luxury hotels on fire in Dubai and stories about thousands of people stranded across the Middle East, it's no wonder travel advisors have described this as being on a much larger scale than any of the region's other conflicts they've had to deal with over the years.
The fact that Travel Weekly set a single-day record for website traffic the Monday after the U.S. and Israel struck Iran shows just how thirsty the industry has been for information.
Not helping the situation is the high level of uncertainty caused by mixed messaging from U.S. officials.
For example, on March 9, President Trump told CBS that the war was "very complete." The market immediately reacted: Oil prices dropped from a four-year high of almost $120 barrel to less than $80 within a day, and stocks rallied. The next day Trump said that if Iran threatened the Strait of Hormuz, where 20% of the world's petroleum transits, the military consequences would "be at a level never seen before." The situation has led to what Barron's called "historic" volatility in the oil markets.
Like oil and Wall Street, travelers do not like uncertainty. Words matter. In what can be described as inconsistent and puzzling messaging from the State Department, a message to "Depart Now" from 14 countries posted on Feb. 28 included Egypt.
Egyptian officials were understandably upset. The State Department offered no rationale for its inclusion, and Egypt remained at a Level 2 travel advisory, which encourages Americans to "exercise increased caution" and is the same level countries including the U.K. and France have. The U.S. embassy in Cairo has been operating normally, and Egyptian airports and airspace have remained open.
But again, words matter, and many travel companies quickly canceled Egypt itineraries for all of March. Upon seeing that Egypt was no more in the line of fire than many other countries not on the alert, after canceling Nile River cruises for the rest of the month on March 3, Viking said it would resume departures this week.
It is no wonder one travel advisor told Travel Weekly that the confusion around Egypt is "a tragedy because it does shake traveler confidence."
Given how quickly this war widened, with Iran striking places long deemed safe, such as Dubai and Abu Dhabi, the travel industry is already tense. Suppliers and advisors are bracing for the prospect of continued flight upheaval and surging airfare prices ahead of spring break and the peak summer season. One thing they should be able to depend on is consistent messaging reflecting on-the-ground reality.
Advisors' time to shine
And yet, despite the volatility and just how difficult this has been for so many advisors, what I keep hearing is that the industry has been through worse.
Some even say that this is an opportunity for advisors to prove their mettle, as they have through the pandemic, natural disasters and previous wars.
"The world of travel is certainly a changing landscape, and so often we and our customers are impacted by things we have no control over," said Alex Sharpe, CEO of Signature Travel Network. "That said, this is where advisors and partners create loyalty and our connections and knowledge shine through."
Sharpe is among those I spoke to who acknowledged the conflict has "significant implications" both short- and possibly long-term, but he does not think it is going to create major travel upheaval.
"In the scheme of things, the number of travelers to the impacted region is relatively small," he said.
His messaging to Signature members is that after helping clients who were directly impacted, they should "pull back" and spend time working with those who have upcoming travel plans to make educated decisions. "Managing customer expectations and dealing with their concerns is what helps set advisors apart from the internet," Sharpe said.
That focus on rebooking is an important one. When one region is down, advisors have always turned to another. It's hard to believe that only a week before the Iran war started, cartel-related violence in parts of Mexico resulted in shelter-in-place orders for Americans in some tourist destinations and also saw travel advisors take action to help clients both on the ground and those looking to rebook.
So one of the main messages agency leaders were giving their members this week is that despite the current global upheaval, this is a regional war.
"The ongoing conflict in Iran continues to create a dynamic and uncertain situation for travel in the region," said Angie Licea, president of Global Travel Collection.
"Travelers are still traveling," she added. "They are mindful of the region impacted."