Travel industry representatives said that the 90-day U.S.
travel ban that the Trump administration imposed last week on nationals of six Muslim-majority
countries isn't as worrisome as the original ban introduced in January. But
they still expect it to have ramifications around the globe.
"Those are not major tourism markets," said Lisa
Simon, executive director of the International Inbound Travel Association. "But
the Muslim market overall has been growing pretty significantly in recent
years. There is concern that there is going to be a perspective from the Middle
East in general and Muslims coming from other countries that they would not
come to the United States because of this action."
Europeans who disagree with the ban might also look
elsewhere to travel, she said.
The ban, which went into effect on June 29, applies to
nationals from Iran, Yemen, Somalia, Sudan, Syria and Libya. The Trump
administration was able to implement it pursuant to a June 26 Supreme Court
opinion, which stated the administration can block nationals of those
countries, though exceptions must be made for individuals "who have a
credible claim of a bona fide relationship with a person or entity in the
United States."
People visiting close family or who have lined up jobs or
schooling in the U.S. cannot be subject to the ban, the court said.
The opinion partially reversed the stay on the ban that had
been implemented by lower courts. It will remain in effect until the Supreme
Court hears arguments in the case in October. By then, however, the case may be
moot, since the 90-day period will have expired. During the 90-day period, the
administration will review security and travel vetting procedures in the
impacted countries.
The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) has interpreted "close
family" to mean spouses, children, parents and parents- and
children-in-law and siblings. However, grandparents, grandchildren and other
extended family don't meet the definition. Relationships that nationals from
the six countries have with U.S. entities cannot be formed for the purpose of
evading the travel ban. The ban does not apply to individuals who held visas
before it went into effect.
Despite widespread concern within the travel industry, it is
difficult to measure whether President Trump's prior travel-related actions,
especially the chaotic weeklong imposition of the original ban in January, has
had any impact on inbound U.S. travel.
Several companies have said that internet travel searches
for the U.S. are down, and the Global Business Travel Association predicts a
loss of more than $1.3 billion in overall travel-related spending in the U.S.
due to political uncertainty. Conversely, the U.S. Travel Association's Travel
Trends Index found that international travel had grown about 4% year-over-year
in April.
Like Simon, Jay Smith, chairman of the National Tour
Association, expressed concern about the way people around the world might view
the new travel ban. But from a practical standpoint, he didn't think the ban
would be a significant issue for tour operators, as the designated countries
send very few tourists to the U.S.
"I don't see a large impact," Smith said.
Data from the State Department shows that in 2016, the U.S.
awarded approximately 44,000 nonimmigrant visas to nationals of the six
impacted countries, slightly more than half of them to Iranians. It's likely
that only a fraction of those visitors came here as sightseers.
Steve Kutay, the owner of North Carolina-based Iran Luxury
Travel, said that the short-lived January travel ban all but killed his
business, especially since Iran responded by threatening to issue its own
prohibition on travelers from the U.S. "It's almost moribund," Kutay
said of his business.
This time around, Iranian officials labeled last week's
Supreme Court decision as "racist," but as of last Thursday had not
talked of issuing a retaliatory ban.
Kutay said either way, the new ban isn't likely to impact
Iran Luxury Travel because "the damage has mostly been done."
But Craig Fichtelberg, president of AmTrav Corporate Travel,
said that by putting uncertainty into the marketplace, the ban could do
long-term damage to the U.S. business travel industry.
"This just puts a bad taste in the entire global
market," Fichtelberg said. "I think a lot of companies in countries
that are not included in the ban are raising eyebrows and deciding whether they
want to get involved with U.S. businesses."