MIAMI -- It's mid-January, and in the cruise industry that can mean
only one thing: Wave season is here.
But since 9/11, some are saying the nature of Wave may be
changing somewhat, given unresolved world events, a shaky economy
and the now-ubiquitous close-in booking trend.
For the uninitiated, Wave is a period of high-volume cruise
sales between, roughly, January and March.
Wave season has been lengthening out for years: The selling
period in question began with Wave Week in the late 1970s and then
extended to Wave Month. Even now, nobody can seem to put a finger
on its actual start or stop.
But the tendency for clients to book close to the sailing date,
in particular, could push the Wave season even longer, as some
clients wait until late March or April to book their summer travel
plans.
"We're swamped," said Steven Sibille, president of New
Orleans-based Crown's Adventures and Sea. "But I should be selling
summer. ... I think the consumer's catching on that buying in
advance is not a good deal.
"It's probably going to be a very long Wave," he added. "But
it's probably not one to be proud of because it's going to be
people selling last-minute deals.
"Right now, it's more expensive to buy a cruise on Royal
Caribbean or Carnival [departing from New Orleans] in September,
during hurricane season, than for one in February," he said.
Timothy Conder, a cruise industry analyst for A.G. Edwards, said
cruise lines typically fill 30% to 35% of their annual bookings
during the Wave season.
"Last year, it was probably a little less," Conder said. "Nor do
I think it'll happen this year."
On average, he said, "people are booking, at most, 120 days out
and closer."
But changing booking patterns haven't changed the way cruise
executives place importance on Wave. Holland America Line's senior
vice president of sales and marketing, David Giersdorf, said his
line starts planning for Wave season in April the year before. This
year, HAL launched a series of TV and magazine spots in
mid-January, as well as promotional materials for agents.
"We take it very seriously, Giersdorf said. "During those
opening eight weeks of the new year we need to finish the winter
season and get off to a good, strong start to the summer."
Nor has agents' enthusiasm for the period been dampened:
Agencies contacted by Travel Weekly, especially those serving
snowbird clients in the north and northeast, said they were busy
with clients.
Jeff Sturman, owner of Best Cruises in Edison, N.J., said
clients are " throwing credit cards at you."
Andy Stuart, senior vice president of sales and marketing for
Norwegian Cruise Line, said the number of agents participating in
NCL's annual "Sale of all Sails" promotion was at a record high
this year.
Both Sturman and Mary Jean Tully, chairman of the Cruise
Professionals in Mississauga, Ontario, reported surprising interest
in summer Europe bookings.
"A lot of people are getting fed up with the indecisiveness, and
they want to take advantage of the deals," Tully said. "They're
cognizant of what itineraries they do, but there's definitely an
increase in European business than this time last year."
But Sturman also said last year's strong booking season
stretched almost through the summer -- another indication that
short-term bookings may be seen year-round.
Other agents reported surprise bookings in December, typically
one of the slowest months of the year and this year rife with
negative publicity due to Norwalk-like virus outbreaks.
Another cruise agency trend: Many agents reported sending their
clients to their Web sites -- especially those interested in
rock-bottom-priced Caribbean cruises.
Cruise Value Centers in East Brunswick, N.J., still sells plenty
of $299 cruises, marketing vice president Spencer Kivet said, but
he added,"we try to push our last-minute clients to the Web. We'll
give them service after the sale."
Pricing, analyst Conder said, is "flattish or slightly down"
compared with Wave season 2002.
One notable difference in this year's Wave season is the lack of
bragging by cruise companies about record days of reservations and
sales activities.
Cruise executives, once eager to share their Wave success
stories, are more subdued or even muzzled. Carnival Corp. brands,
for example, cannot talk about Wave bookings due to regulations
surrounding the proposed merger with P&O Princess Cruises.
So when is Wave? No clear answer
MIAMI -- Ever ask a simple question and get a complicated answer
or even a laugh? It happens a lot when you ask cruise executives,
"When is Wave season?"
"I think the reason everybody laughs is because it varies so
much," said Dan Hanrahan, Royal Caribbean International's senior
vice president of sales and marketing.
Timothy Conder, cruise analyst at A.G. Edwards, said Wave season
traditionally begins during the second week in January. But when
Travel Weekly asked around, we got a variety of answers:
• "It peaks the last week of January, first week of February and
ends the last week of March." -- Spencer Kivet of Cruise Value
Center in East Brunswick, N.J.
• "Wave begins the second full week after New Year's, so, in my
way of thinking, it's Jan. 13. When it ends is a mystery to me." --
David Giersdorf, Holland America Line.
• "You get a big peak, I'd generally say, toward the third week
of January." -- Andy Stuart, Norwegian Cruise Line.
• "We started a day or two after New Year's Day. ... I wish I
could bottle it." -- Jeff Sturman, Best Cruises, Edison, N.J. --
R.T.