In a stark warning, U.S. Travel Association CEO Geoff Freeman said that foreign travel to the U.S. -- which already had not fully recovered from the pandemic -- is further going in the wrong direction.
Speaking on CNBC's Squawk Box on April 29, Freeman said the $50 billion travel trade surplus the U.S. enjoyed ten years ago has swung to a $50 billion deficit, a $100 billion reversal that threatens to get worse.
According to a U.S. Travel Association graphic shown during the interview, Canada land trips to the U.S. in March were down 26% year over year, and Canada-U.S. flights were down 14%. Western Europe travel to the U.S. was down 17% in March, the first decline since 2021, and travel from South America was down 10%.
What wasn't discussed in the interview were the probable reasons for the recent decline: the tariffs on Mexico and Canada, President Trump's rhetoric about making Canada the 51st U.S. state, previous Canada prime minister Justin Trudeau urging Canadians to avoid spending their vacation dollars in the U.S., and the detainment of European tourists at the Canada and Mexico borders for seemingly minor violations of stricter border enforcement.
Freeman said a welcoming message is badly needed.
"Right now, the hole that we're digging is a little bit deeper," Freeman said. "The question is, what are we doing to send a message that we want you come in the United States? And that's what's been missing. We understand, obviously, what needs to be done on the trade front. We understand what needs to be done to seal the border. How do we combine that with a message that we want you to come to United States? Because we certainly can't afford to drive these visitors away."
Freeman emphasized the enormous contribution of international visitors. In New York alone, he said they account for 20% of the visitors but more than half of tourism spending. The roughly $200 billion international travelers spend annually, he said, is "more than all of our agricultural exports combined."
"When these travelers come, they do nothing more than come, spend their money, and go home -- and tell their friends and family to do the same," he said.
That falloff from abroad is happening while domestic air travel has softened, he said, with TSA screenings down 2%. Also, shrinking booking windows indicate there is hesitation about making travel plans.
Freeman called for a national strategy to reverse the decline, calling out key opportunities to recapture lost ground during the upcoming decade of international events.
"The point would be, it's not too late," he said. "As we look forward, we've got the World Cup, we've got America's 250th next year. We've got the Olympics coming up in L.A. I think most importantly, coming out of the pandemic, people want to travel. They value experiences over goods more than they did before the pandemic. That desire is there. How do you unlock the opportunity?