Each year, I like to offer some observations and predictions about changes we might anticipate in the next 12 months.
We are all aware of the challenges: The euro is in a precarious position, and no one is sure that Greece can stay with the currency.
Germany is not of a mind to aid Italy and Spain like it has supported Greece. The economists who are now running Italy have embraced heavy austerity, removing pensions and health coverage for tens of thousands of workers. Strikes are inevitable as the summer approaches.
We've got a struggling economy at home, and we are living with a new consumer mindset: "I'll spend my money only when you can convince me I'll get the best possible value."
Suddenly, we find ourselves morphing from agents to financial planners.
Along with a fair number of natural disasters, wars and other security issues, not to mention weather patterns that seem off the charts, we are dealing with a new kind of client.
Make way for the self-researched know-it-all, fresh from reading opinions and online hotel reviews by mystery shoppers sometimes using phony names and even phonier claims to product expertise. How, for example, do we know that they even stayed at the hotel they are critiquing? We don't.
Our airlines are in a mega-merger mood, and all sorts of rumors lead down a dark tunnel with no visible runway lights.
But there are also some wonderful bright spots on the travel horizon, and there is little indication that Americans are inclined to curb their lust to see the world. A statistical few are even willing to take steps to understand the places they visit.
Here are some predictions, trends and observations about where we might be headed in these oh-so-challenging times:
Travel agents will see a strong 2012
All signs point to sharp upticks in the public perception of travel agents and the realization that in a crunch, you are better off with an agent covering your back.
In Travel Leaders' annual survey, 91% of members predicted their business would remain on track or grow in 2012.
Several studies of consumer travel plans place the number of travelers who intend to increase their leisure travel in 2012 at about 50%. Each of the major consortia reports optimism about bookings, with the potential for surges in markets such as Asia, Europe and the South Pacific.
At the same time, Forrester Research reports that the number of survey respondents who "enjoy booking travel on the Internet" has fallen below 50%, and the trend is downward.
Fall bookings will be soft
For the past two decades, presidential campaigns have had a negative impact on booking patterns in the months before and immediately following the election. I think that the polarization of U.S. politics will result in a miserable fall travel season. We might not want to watch the political ads, and we might be sickened by aspects of the process, but the fact is that picking a president is an event most Americans want to participate in from home. We can only hope the summer is strong enough to carry us through the third quarter.
Estonia will become a hot destination
As a sand-and-sun escape, Estonia is exotic, extremely affordable and easily reached. In addition, Tallin has been visited and enjoyed by many American cruise passengers. It doesn't hurt that Tallin was named Europe's Capital of Culture last year.
U.S. visitors to Russia will soar
With new river cruising products, new hotel openings and a sophisticated tourism infrastructure, Russia will expand its visitor numbers dramatically. Most visitors to St. Petersburg leave with a favorable impression of Russia's treasures, and there is renewed interest in more exotic Russian locales, fueled in part by upscale Russian Tea Room-type restaurants in major U.S. cities. This interest is aided by the fact that Russia will host the Winter Olympics in 2014 and soccer's World Cup in 2018.
Cape Verde Islands will be a hot spot
Referred to by some as "the poor man's Maldives," the Cape Verde Islands, just off the west coast of Africa, offer easy access from London, affordable pricing and the ability to package with safaris in Kenya or Tanzania.
Changes in Google, Bing search results
Agents and suppliers will have to keep up with changes to the major online search algorithms, as social media will play an increasing role in the rankings for travel. Thus, the notion of having a website and ignoring social media will no longer be an option. Social media use will become a measuring device to improve online rankings.
Some of Europe will not rebound
Portugal, Ireland and Germany will face continuing challenges in attracting U.S. visitors.
Portugal, when packaged with Spain, always did well. But Spain is now perceived as much more than just Madrid and Barcelona, and many U.S. visitors, especially culinary travelers, no longer see a need to add Portugal to a Spain vacation.
Ireland is not attracting an adequate share of Chinese and Russian visitors to counter anticipated slowing of growth from the U.S. market. It also suffers from the back-burner effect: Travelers feel they can always do Ireland later in life, so they'd better see more exotic places while they can. This is a shame, since Ireland is one of the most attractive self-drive vacations anywhere, which has broad appeal to younger travelers.
Germany has not fully participated in trends such as spa and culinary vacations, and its success attracting river cruisers from the U.S. has had little impact on river cruise pricing for accommodations, food or sightseeing. As a result, onshore spending is actually lower than it is for sea cruisers. Untapped opportunities include tours appealing to owners of German-made cars.
Cruise lines will improve crew training
Normally, Carnival Corp., Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. and Norwegian Cruise Line, which together account for 80% of total U.S. cruise line capacity, would simply move on following a disaster at sea. Safety is just not a proper topic for advertising. But the Costa Concordia accident will remain with us for a while as investigations and environmental risk drag on, especially with cameras perched only yards from the salvage efforts.
The villa rental market will grow
By the end of the year, major consortia and franchisers will leverage partnerships within the villa and apartment markets. The barrier to entry for agents has been the inability of villa marketing companies to create a working relationship with travel sellers. A lot of progress will be made in this regard in 2012, with some major villa firms sponsoring far-reaching agent training programs.
Pod hotels will flourish at U.S. airports
Pod hotels are already here, with strong growth to come. The in-terminal facilities, used primarily by travelers with a few hours between connections, already in place at airports in the U.K., Amsterdam and Philadelphia, are generally no larger than 75 square feet. Some have tiny private bathrooms, some don't. A key demographic is the stressed executive who needs a few hours of sleep prior to a morning meeting.
Contributing editor Richard Turen owns Churchill and Turen, a vacation-planning firm that has been named to Conde Nast Traveler's list of the World's Top Travel Specialists since the list began. Contact him at [email protected].
This article has been updated to reflect that the Cape Verde Islands are off the west coast of Africa, near Senegal and Mauritania, not the east coast as was previously stated.