Robert Silk
Everybody loves a good airline turf war. Well, maybe everyone except airline finance teams.
But as many aviation geeks would tell you, turf wars are fun. For instance, they can lead to sharp exchanges like the one we experienced last month when United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby proclaimed that United will be drawing a line in the sand this year at O'Hare, where American is rapidly adding to its schedule.
United, Kirby said, will still make a profit of at least $500 million at O'Hare this year, even as it grows aggressively in an effort keep American in check.
"American, and we're pretty good at estimating this, is likely to push to about $1 billion in losses in Chicago," Kirby said.
Hold on, American CEO Robert Isom countered the following week.
"Quite frankly, I wouldn't be out there bragging about profitability in a hub when 80% of your team members make a lot less than the market rate," he quipped in an apparent reference to the various union contracts that United has not yet sealed.
But along with offering harmless amusement during these tough times, airline turf wars are great for consumers.
At O'Hare, United plans to operate as many as 750 flights on busy days this summer, an increase of 170 flights from last year.
American will bump its O'Hare flying on the busiest spring days by 30% this year, reaching more than 500 departures.
Chicagoland customers can also expect to benefit from cheaper prices, as nothing tamps down airfares like competition.
In fact, among the largest U.S. airports, it's almost always the ones with the most balanced competition that have lower fares. Late last summer, the website Simple Flying ran a list of the 10 U.S. hub airports in which one carrier accounted for a least 70% of departures. In order of one-carrier domination they are Charlotte, Dallas-Fort Worth, Atlanta, Houston Bush Intercontinental, Minneapolis, Philadelphia, Detroit, Salt Lake City, Washington Dulles and Newark.
Each of those airports had average departing domestic fares in excess of $400 as of the second quarter of 2025, which is the most recent available data from the Bureau of Transportation Statistics. The national average was $385.50.
Flights from Charlotte, where American has nearly 90% of market share, averaged $440. Flights from Dulles, a United hub, averaged $463.
Market concentration isn't the only driver of fares. The average length of flights, the types of carriers operating at an airport and how much airports charge airlines in fees are among other significant factors.
Still, it's telling that hubs such as Denver, Phoenix and, yes, O'Hare, which have at least two large carriers offering robust schedules, have lower fares than the 10 U.S. fortress hubs.
Fortunately, O'Hare is merely the largest, U.S. airport where a turf war is taking shape. Another notable one is San Diego, where Alaska Airlines is the insurgent, taking on dominant Southwest. In April, Alaska will operate 40% more flights there year over year with nine more routes. Southwest, meanwhile, will be up 14% with 13 added routes.
Back at O'Hare, flyers shouldn't expect the gravy train to last forever. The Chicago market, predicted investment analysts at Deutsche Bank in late January, won't be able to support the 240 daily departures United and American plan to add this summer.
"Therefore, expect to see a lower flight total in summer 2027," they wrote.