The U.S. Travel Association said that international inbound travel and domestic business travel will not rebound to prepandemic levels until 2025.
According its biannual forecast, which measures travel to and within the U.S. through 2027, international inbound travel is recovering but will only reach 98% of 2019 levels this year, up from 84% in 2023.
Elsewhere in the world, Spain achieved a 100% recovery in inbound travel in 2023, according to U.S. Travel. Turkiye (109% recovery) and Greece (105%) exceeded 2019 levels in 2023. The U.K. (94%), Mexico (94%) and France (93%) outperformed the U.S.
U.S. Travel cited the expectation of a global macroeconomic slowdown, the strong dollar and lengthy visa wait times as reasons that growth in U.S. inbound travel will stall in 2024.
The report predicts the U.S. will not achieve a full recovery of travelers until 2025 and that their spending levels, adjusted for inflation, will not recover until 2026.
The study comes shortly after U.S. Travel reported that while the U.S. is still the most desired destination for global travelers, it is third in total visitation (behind Spain and France), and that it has lost market share since 2019.
"While we inch back to prepandemic travel numbers, other countries are actively advancing strategies to gain international visitors and are now ahead of the United States in the race to win back the global travel market," said U.S. Travel CEO Geoff Freeman. "The federal government can and must enact specific policies to jumpstart a more seamless, efficient and globally competitive travel industry."
The forecast, prepared by Tourism Economics, came days after a U.S. Travel report prepared by Euromonitor International found that the U.S. ranks "nearly dead last" in competitiveness for global travelers.
The U.S. was 17th out of 18 markets in the study, which assessed global travel competitiveness and looked at many categories the U.S. scored last or low in, such as time to obtain a visa, the number of countries allowed to travel to the U.S. without a visa, customs waits upon arrival, biometric security screening capabilities, government leadership on travel-related issues, and perception of safety and the prevalence of crime.
The study also found that the U.S. has few federal policies and little funding to increase inbound visitation, while countries like Canada have robust national strategies to boost travel.
The U.S. scored highly in travel promotion thanks in part to the work of Brand USA, U.S. Travel said. The organization also said the U.S. is "a highly desired destination, with diverse products and a strong brand identity among international travelers."