SAN FRANCISCO -- Tour operators and air ticket consolidators are expecting the latest international caps to provide a boost to their business, as agents seek higher commissions on air-inclusive packages and tours.

The only major airline to operate its own tour brand in house, American Airlines, with its American Airlines Vacations, continues to pay 10% on air tickets sold in conjunction with an AAV tour order. United Airlines' tour brand, United Vacations, operated by the Mark Travel Corp. and Delta's Delta Vacations, operated by Certified Vacations, continue to pay standard commission on air-inclusive packages. Mark Travel and Certified's relationship with their airline partners is based on net fare arrangements.

"The beautiful thing is that agents can earn up to 15%," said Ted Mooney, general manager of Delta Vacations. "Our average package sale to Europe is $3,500, so that's $350 at 10% commission and $525 at 15%."

Agents may steer away from airline-affiliated brands because of their anger with the carriers, however. Mooney said it happened to Delta Vacations with the first cap of 1995, and the tour firm suffered a dip in sales from agents. Months later, sales began to climb. "I'm glad Delta was not the first one [airline to impose international caps] this time," Mooney said.

Tour operators and consolidators predicted agents will turn to them for air tickets, even if it means agents will not receive the air-segment counts to fulfill their CRS contracts. "Agents [will turn] to where they can make money, and they can earn more money by selling air-inclusive tours," said John Martinen, Globus & Cosmos chairman.

In the last several years almost all the major tour operators added air to their escorted or FIT packages, signing deals with airlines for contracted space and making the air component a seamless part of the package or tour. Martinen said there was some resistance by agents in using air-inclusives a decade ago because "they preferred to maintain their own relationship with the airlines." That resistance is eroding with the preference for "one-stop shopping" with tour firms.

Nigel Osborne, president of Insight International Tours, said his company was preparing, before the commission cap, to expand its contracted air program in preparation for 2000, which is expected to be a banner year for travel to Europe.

However, there are tough spots -- such as Rome and Milan, Italy; Athens, Greece, and Madrid, Spain -- where capacity shortage from the U.S. causes airlines to limit allotments to tour operators. Agents booking those destinations may be forced to book directly with airlines and accept 8% or the $100 cap on commission -- rather than the standard 13% that Insight pays on air-inclusives to agencies with preferred standing, Osborne said.

Brendan Tours' James Murphy, who operates an air-ticket consolidator division, said he expects from agents because of the commission caps, particularly to destinations where consolidators offer not only higher commission but lower fares than published rates. "We can't compete with air fares to London this winter, which are starting at $399 from Los Angeles, but we can do better than a published fare when someone is traveling to London in two days," said Murphy, who predicted agents will be doing "fast footwork" to find the lowest fare and the best compensation for their work.

Darlene Rippon, president of Diplomat Tours in Sacramento, Calif., said that her company was "inundated" with calls from agents hours after United's announcement and that she expects demand from agents for consolidator tickets to "grow stronger" as the full impact to their bottom line hits.

But Rippon and others warned that airlines' sophisticated yield-management techniques are leading airlines to restrict more routes and seats offered through consolidators.

And, although consolidators often beat the airlines' published fares, the difference in their price and the airlines' published price is growing smaller. "It's getting difficult to offer a consolidator ticket at an attractive price," said Heinz Wesner, president of DER Travel, Rosemont, Ill.

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