SAN FRANCISCO -- Small, independent travel agencies are at the
greatest risk of losing customers to Web travel sites, according to
an analyst who helped prepare the Bear Stearns report.
As reported, the findings, which marks Bear
Stearns' entry into the Internet travel industry, predicted that
25% of all travel agents could lose their jobs in the next few
years due to the Web.
But although the number of small agencies might dwindle, it
doesn't mean that the work of the agent will diminish, said Robert
LaFleur, an associate director with the New York investment
firm.
In fact, many on-line travel agencies acknowledge that a human
element is needed for many bookings made on the Internet,
particularly for cruises and tours, he said.
And traditional travel agents have plenty of room for survival
if they fill a particular niche and focus on customer service,
LaFleur added.
The report came down hard on the fate of on-line travel
companies, suggesting that 80% will not succeed and that only two
or three of conventional on-line travel agencies will ever gain the
size, distribution and brand awareness to be viable public
companies.
"Only 200 of the existing 1,000 Internet travel sites will
probably survive" a period of consolidation and shakeout that will
come as the larger, more established players take control of the
Internet travel market, LaFleur said.
And despite the immense growth of Internet travel, it will still
account for only about 10% of total bookings by 2003.
The report noted that travelers often say they do not use the
Internet for travel because they enjoy the relationship they have
with their agent.
"The ability of a travel agent to solve problems if something
goes wrong is a key part of this relationship," the report said.
"Replicating this level of customer service remains a challenge for
on-line travel agencies," according to the report.
The most common reason given by those who use the Internet to
shop but not book is that they prefer to use "live" travel agents,
valuing the "experience, insight and personal service" that an
agent provides, the report said.
Another reason is that they prefer someone else to make their
travel arrangements.
The report added that a solution may be the "click-and-mortar"
travel agencies, which combine the Internet with a network of
traditional agencies.