This column differs from those I have written in the past. No pithy homilies or aphorisms to elicit a smile before launching into the heart of the topic this time.
The threat that Covid-19 poses to the retail travel sales channel is even greater now than it was when I wrote my last column. Some large retailers have shut down completely, others have furloughed more than 90% of their sales staff, and still others have changed their business model dramatically.
Reports of airline, cruise line and tour operator shutdowns assail us almost weekly. The cruise industry has halted all sailings from U.S. ports.
Against that backdrop, I have some predictions:
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) holds the lifelines that can make or break the cruise industry. Its No Sail Order has had the effect of curtailing cruising well into September.
The CDC is tasked with monitoring events and issues that have even the remotest possibility of impacting the health and welfare of this nation. With fewer than 15,000 employees and the enormity of all that it faces, a substantial effort will be needed to devote resources, time and effort to prepare the cruise industry to sail again.
A joint venture, blue-ribbon panel recently announced by Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings and Royal Caribbean Group will almost certainly serve to bring the plight of the industry into sharper focus.
This panel can serve to connect the CDC and cruise industry and to enhance efforts of both to find a timely, safe and secure way of resuming cruise travel. Both are in agreement with the suspension of operations until all are assured of the safety of resumption. I believe the panel will be able to oversee the formulation of strategies and protocols that are likely to pass muster with the CDC and to speed the resumption of cruise vacations.
When might that be? Without a vaccine, it would have to wait until herd immunity occurs; that is, after 70% of the population has been exposed to the virus. That is certainly not quickly attainable.
The U.S. government is funding several initiatives in a race to produce vaccines. Hopeful forecasts suggest we could see a safe vaccine in early 2021. For the sake of this discussion, let's set that date at Feb. 1.
With a wartime mobilization, production and distribution of vaccines followed by the process of vaccinating Americans could conceivably begin by May 1.
Let's further assume that the vaccination effort goes more smoothly than Covid-19 testing occurred and that just three months are sufficient to complete the task. That brings us to the end of July or start of August.
Cruise lines would have to prepare for the resumption of sailing well before that; it isn't like going out in the garage and taking the cover off my Corvette, removing the battery tender and firing it up.
I'd estimate that each of the three major corporations will return at least five, but no more than 15, ships a month to service, for a variety of reasons. In that scenario, "normal" returns Jan. 1, 2022.
It's like this: The next 12 months will sort out the survivors in the retail channel. Those remaining will truly have achieved a level of financial herd immunity that will protect them from any event that I can conceive of.