As the first of the Big Three cruise lines to report quarterly earnings since President Donald Trump's tariffs sparked a trade war causing a stock market slide, cruise industry analysts relentlessly questioned Carnival Corp. CEO Josh Weinstein about signs of volatility.
Josh Weinstein
While stressing that Carnival Corp. is not immune to current events, Weinstein described business at the world's largest cruise company as doing well, if not thriving.
"We do feel good about the strength of our consumer," he told investors during the company's first-quarter earnings call in late March, noting onboard spending grew 10% year over year in Q1.
Weinstein described this year's Wave season as "a success" with record-breaking first-quarter revenue and yields. Carnival Corp. enjoyed not only strong close-in demand, but set a record for future bookings, saying booking volumes for the first quarter of 2026 and beyond reached record levels. Weinstein also said the company has attracted more new cruisers than ever before.
Insulating Carnival from volatility, he said, is the price gap between the rates for cruises compared to land vacations.
"Even though it pisses me off when we look at the price gap ... in those types of times, that is a huge strength that we have because we can outperform the experience we give for the price that we charge compared to land," Weinstein said.
Royal Caribbean Group and Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings will report their Q1 earnings later this spring.
Booking trends for cruise sellers
Although Carnival reported business is uniformly strong, travel advisors report a mix of client responses to the geopolitical and economic climate this year.
Cleveland Research Co., which regularly surveys travel advisors about booking trends, described this year's Wave season as starting strong but becoming "choppier" from late February through most of March, heading toward a flattening out.
"The recent news headlines and pullback in the stock market has resulted in some slowing, similar to what we have observed in other short-term market disruptions," Cleveland Research concluded from its survey.
A little more than a quarter of respondents, 27%, said their bookings were better than expected in the past 45 days. That's a drop from 53% of those who reported better than expected bookings in the 45 days prior to Cleveland Research's January survey.
However, Cleveland Research said, cruise lines are well insulated from softening in the near term after entering the year with strong booked positions and a strong start to Wave season.
Some executives at large and small agencies have also seen a softening.
Geoff Cox
"Overall sales continue to be either flat or just a little up" by less than 5%, said Geoff Cox, vice president of sales and marketing for KHM Travel Group.
He attributes this trend to a multitude of factors, including the tariff war, the drop in the stock market, news about people with varied international status having difficulty returning to the U.S., federal workers losing their jobs, concern about inflation increasing and wages slowing.
"I don't have a lot of confidence in the current administration, so I think it's going to be a rough four years," he said.
Luxury cruise products seem to be faring better, he said. Bookings for most of KHM's luxury cruise brands are up 10% to 15%.
Jean Paul Carufo, owner of NetCruise Travel based in Portland, Ore., is concerned about the long-term effect of federal government changes on his business and the industry.
Workforce reductions, funding cuts to federal agencies and economic uncertainty due to government policies give him the most pause, he said in a Travel Weekly survey on travel advisor perspectives.
While none of his clients canceled their cruises, inquiries and bookings for future voyages have significantly decreased compared to the same time last year, he said.
"Numerous conversations with clients about potential bookings are definitely being put on hold," he said.
Clients are also concerned about how they as Americans will be received in other countries, he added.
On the flip side, Steve Skidgel, head of supply for Cruisebound, a young and growing digital-only booking company attracting high numbers of new cruisers, is seeing a recent booking surge after a few months that were all over the place.
January was "up and down," with a few "great" days before February leveled out, he said.
This month is a different story.
"March has just been spectacular" and has included a record booking week and is on its way to being a record booking month, he said.
Correction: Jean Paul Caufo, who is male, was erroneously identified as female.