PITTSBURGH -- New figures from Canada show trips to the U.S. are up
2% through August, the Commerce Department's Tourism Industries
office reported.
Based in part on that rebound, Tourism Industries is predicting
Canadian arrivals will grow by nearly 1% this year and then 2.5% a
year through 2003. That may not sound like much -- until you
consider that the number of Canadian arrivals fell 11% in 1998 and
has risen in only one year since 1991, partly because the exchange
rate for the Canadian dollar has been so poor in recent years.
Tourism Industries researcher Helen Marano attributed the
recovery to the recent strength of Canada's gross domestic product,
and she encouraged U.S. marketers not to give up on the country's
northern neighbor. "As our largest market, it is critical to
continue the attention and promotional investments into Canada,"
Marano said.
The Canada prediction is part of the newest Tourism Industries
international travel forecast, released at the Travel Industry
Association's Global Marketing Forum here last month.
The good news was not confined to Canadian arrivals. Asia also
has strengthened since the previous international travel forecast
in May. A slight rebound is expected from Japan over the next few
years, with a 6% increase by 2003 from what is now the U.S.'
biggest overseas market. Double-digit growth is projected from
Korea.
Taiwan, meanwhile, is projected to climb from 13th to eighth as
a U.S. overseas market. That forecast should provide confidence to
destinations that have been interested in making a bigger effort to
attract tourists from there, Marano said.
In the U.K., travel to the U.S. will grow 27% over the forecast
period, reaching nearly 5.1 million. That could threaten Japan's
No. 1 overseas status.
Overall, the number of arrivals from all markets is expected to
increase 18% by 2003, to a record 55 million in that year.
Forecasts for some other key regions and countries, through 2003
follow:
Arrivals from Mexico, the second-largest market, will grow 3% a
year. The forecast, it should be noted, assumes stability in the
Mexican economy.For its part, Europe will show double-digit growth, thanks in
large part to the U.K. Germany, the third-largest overseas market,
will increase 23% to 2.3 million.South America growth will reach double digits, too. Brazil is
projected to fall 17% this year, but, on the assumption government
reforms succeed, will be back to its 1998 level by 2003.Also in South America, Venezuela will grow 38%, making it
"definitely a market to consider," Marano said. Even when hit by
economic troubles, she said, Venezuela seems to have an "informal
economy" that keeps travel going.