Brexit uncertainty may be taking a toll on travel, according
to ForwardKeys, which found that summer bookings from the United Kingdom to the
European Union are down 4.6% from the year before.
According to an analysis of first-quarter tour operator
bookings, ForwardKeys said the first post-Brexit summer season is likely to be
flat. Bookings to the rest of the world (non-EU) are up 13.8%, which leaves the
total summer outlook behind 0.2%.
Air travel between
the U.K. and EU countries accounted for 70% of Britain's total traffic in 2018,
and outbound first-quarter bookings are crucial to yearly results, ForwardKeys
said, adding that last year European summer travel was 59% booked by the end of
March.
EU destinations are taking a hit from the downturn in
British demand, with Spain (down 7%) perhaps hurting the most, due to having a 53%
share of U.K. residents traveling to the EU.
Portugal is down 10.6%, Cyprus 6.9% and Greece 2.7%.
"Uncertainty over Brexit is clearly affecting people's
thinking about holiday travel plans," said Olivier Ponti, vice president
of insights for ForwardKeys. "But there's still plenty of confidence in
the market, reflected in increased seat capacity."
U.K. travelers are still traveling, with Turkey up 31%, and
Tunisia, Egypt and Jamaica also seeing increases. U.K. travel to the United
States is down 5%.
ForwardKeys predicts future travel patterns by analyzing 17
million booking transactions a day.