Because the Department of Transportation may outlaw GDS productivity-based bonuses later this year or early next year, shouldn't we wait until the DOT makes a decision before we negotiate our new GDS contract?

Aren't we wasting our time now? If not, can we write the GDS contract in a way as to get around the effects of such DOT action?

A: No one can predict whether the DOT will adopt its proposal or when it might do so. Luckily, for the purposes of GDS negotiations in mid-2003, it doesn't matter one way or the other.

No GDS vendor will agree to a contract at this time that circumvents a ban on productivity bonuses. Nor will any GDS vendor agree to a contract that hedges all bets -- like a deal that you can terminate at will if you cannot get paid for your bookings. Vendors are just not flexible enough to anticipate all possible outcomes.

Therefore, if you negotiate now, vendors will probably present you and most other agencies with a contract that provides for no DOT-related contingencies.

Then, if the DOT does not outlaw bonuses, you will be all set. If it takes the opposite action, you will be no worse off than any other agency with an existing contract.

Existing contracts may or may not be grandfathered. In 1985 and 1992, existing contracts were affected by new GDS rules, but the changes did not hurt agencies. This time around, the DOT would disrupt agency economics to such an extent that existing contracts might be exempt.

So, we should leave aside the DOT question and address the real issue: Will the economics of the GDS business make offers worse in late 2003 or early 2004 than they are now? There is a very good chance they will be worse.

Between Galileo's Momentum program, Sabre's Direct Connect Availability discounts and whatever program Worldspan eventually rolls out after all the noise it has made about the need for a "new model," average booking fees paid by U.S. airlines probably are headed south.

The beauty of most GDS contracts is that they lock in agency bonus levels for three or five years regardless of whether booking fees go down. Therefore, negotiating and signing now makes sense to me.

At least one vendor already is at work developing a contract stating that bonuses can be adjusted if booking fees go down. Get your deal done before your vendor decides you have to sign such a contract.

Mark Pestronk is a Fairfax, Va.-based attorney specializing in travel law. He answers your questions in the TravelWeekly.com Legal Ease forum. To contact Mark directly, e-mail him at [email protected].

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