Roughly a year ago, President Trump's rhetoric about making Canada the 51st U.S. state and a trade dispute sent Canadian travel to the U.S. into a sharp decline, and there's little sign of a turnaround.
With no near-term recovery in sight, the industry is coming to terms with the possibility that winning back Canadians may take far longer than expected.
Canadian visitation to the U.S. topped 20 million in 2024, generating $20 billion in spending, according to the U.S. Travel Association. By the end of 2025, that figure had dropped to roughly 16 million visitors, a decline of more than 20%.
Although early 2026 data offers little cause for optimism, Tyler Gosnell, managing director of international inbound travel for U.S. Travel, said there are signs the worst may be over.
Tyler Gosnell
"Given the steep declines that we have seen, we're hopeful that we're plateauing," he said. "It's difficult to imagine that these numbers will erode further."
Among the industry's most pressing concerns, he said, is that the longer the decline persists, the more permanent it may become. Canadians who once made annual U.S. pilgrimages might build new traditions elsewhere.
"Five, 10 years of going to the same place [turns into] a new family tradition," said Gosnell. "Instead of going to Florida, they'll go to the French Riviera. Instead of New York, they'll go to London. They'll go to the Caribbean, Mexico or Costa Rica."
Airlines have already adjusted their networks accordingly. WestJet and Air Canada have both cut U.S. routes and redirected capacity to other markets, with Gosnell warning that reversing course on that front will take time.
"Those conversations about network-planning decisions need to happen in the coming months for 2027," he said. "We're not going to see a meaningful lift until we get that airlift back."
According to Cirium flight-schedule data, Air Canada seats to the U.S. are down 4.4% this month compared to last year and 13.4% versus two years ago. WestJet is down 13% year over year and 14.9% versus 2024, which is especially notable given that over those same two years, WestJet has grown its overall seat count by 12.5% and Air Canada by 1.1%.
Among specific markets, seats from Canada to Las Vegas are down 27.6% year over year and 41.1% versus April 2024. Seats to Florida are down 14.2% versus last year. Canada-New York routes have fared better, up 6.6% year over year, but still down 5.5% from 2024.
Bram Gallagher
The challenges extend across other travel segments. Canadian travelers' demand for U.S. short-term rentals plunged roughly 23% in April 2025 and about 50% by midsummer, according to analytics firm AirDNA. Demand was down approximately 25% in March 2026.
"It looks like things are kind of holding pretty close to what we saw last year after April," said Bram Gallagher, director of economics and forecasting at AirDNA.
U.S. mountain resorts are seeing a similar trend play out.
"It's not getting worse and it's not really getting better," said Tom Foley, director of business intelligence at Inntopia, a mountain destination booking and data firm.
According to Inntopia, bookings from Canadian travelers to mountain properties were down around 40% in 2025 versus 2024, with that gap remaining essentially unchanged at the start of this year.
"We've been very vocal that we believe this is not short-lived," added Foley. "We expect some resolution over time, depending upon the election cycle and, of course, trade policy. But people who haven't really been listening to our messaging may be surprised at how resolute the Canadian market is in this."
McKenzie McMillan
That resoluteness is something McKenzie McMillan, managing partner and luxury travel designer with Vancouver-based The Travel Group, has witnessed firsthand. Leisure demand to the U.S. remains deeply suppressed, he said, with corporate travel ticking up slightly. Safety concerns have added another layer.
"When Canadians see stories about noncitizens being detained, that raises questions," said McMillan. "At this point, with the safety factor included, I just don't see this changing anytime soon until we see a noticeable change in policy and behavior toward travelers."
The right marketing tone
Against that backdrop, marketing effectively to Canadians has proven challenging. Gosnell said that what is working for some destinations and suppliers is messaging that directly acknowledges Canadian concerns.
"It's not a business-as-usual environment," he said. "Those who are able to break through share a message that is authentic -- meeting Canadians where they are, [recognizing] that for many of them this was a personal, long-term relationship where they felt attacked."
Vermont has taken that approach to heart, anchoring its Canadian outreach around a "100% Love for Canada" tagline.
"We're in this for the long haul," said Heather Pelham, commissioner of Vermont's Department of Tourism and Marketing, adding that the messaging is intended to "reinforce how we respect them, even if they're not planning on traveling right now."
Staypineapple created discounts for Canadian travelers at its properties, including the Hotel Five in Seattle. Photo Credit: Staypineapple
Dina Belon, president of Staypineapple, operator of four Seattle properties as well as hotels in Boston, Chicago, New York, San Francisco and Portland, Ore., said the company launched a 30% discount offer for Canadians last May that has since generated roughly 900 bookings, even as web traffic from Canadian visitors slipped from 6% to 7% of total site traffic to approximately 3.1% by early 2026.
Likewise, Kennebunkport Resort Collection, which operates 10 boutique properties in Maine, is seeing a slight uptick in bookings under its long-standing "O Canada" offer. It includes perks like extra savings, a bottle of bubbly and late check-out for the coming season.
"Canadians coming to the U.S. is an important part of the American experience," said Gosnell. "Whether it's a small town seeing restaurant closures or a big city like New York feeling the pain of fewer Canadians coming, that's real, and we want to do everything we can to change that."
Robert Silk contributed to this report.