Air traffic controllers returned to work in significant numbers on Tuesday, a positive sign for a potentially quick aviation recovery once the federal government shutdown is over, Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy said.
"If the House does their work tomorrow, I think we're well on our way to getting to more normal air travel -- less delays, less cancellations," Duffy said at a Tuesday press briefing.
Airlines say that a return to normal operations won't be immediate when FAA-imposed capacity cutbacks are removed.
"Airlines' reduced flight schedules cannot immediately bounce back to full capacity right after the government reopens," the trade group Airlines for America (A4A) said on Nov. 11. "It will take time, and there will be residual effects for days."
Though he struck a mostly optimistic tone, Duffy warned of mass controller call-outs if the government doesn't reopen this week.
"If the House doesn't pass this bill, I think you are going to think of this past Saturday, Sunday and Monday as tiddlywinks," Duffy said. "I think you would have airlines making a serious calculation about whether they are able to fly," based on information the DOT is picking up on.
From Nov. 7 to Nov. 10, the DOT imposed a 4% reduction in air traffic on 39 large- and medium-sized commercial airports. Actual flight cancellations, however, ran much higher from Nov. 8 to Nov. 10, including a cancellation rate of approximately 10% on Nov. 10.
The FAA's reduction requirement increased on Tuesday to 6%, but actual cancellation numbers were significantly lower than the previous days. On early Tuesday evening, 1,240 U.S. flights had been canceled, according to FlightAware, compared to Monday's final count of more than 2,400.
Duffy said that on Saturday, the FAA imposed 81 ground or airspace delays due to controller staffing shortages. On Tuesday, there had been just four staffing triggers.
"I think air traffic controllers are seeing an end to the shutdown and they are feeling more hopeful and they are coming in," he said.
Duffy said controllers would receive 70% of their backpay within 48 hours of the shutdown ending and the remainder within a week. He also endorsed a proposal made by President Donald Trump on Truth Social on Nov. 10 to provide a $10,000 bonus to controllers who haven't skipped a day during the shutdown, and to dock the pay of controllers who consistently have not shown up.
Duffy pushed back against accusations that shutdown politics had played a role in the FAA's decision to reduce airspace capacity; he said it was based solely on safety, saying there were runway incursions, violations of airspace separation and rules and pilot concern about overworked controllers.
He added that the FAA will roll back capacity restrictions in stages.
Airlines on Tuesday weren't ready to say how long it would take them to return to full operations once the shutdown is over and capacity restrictions lifted.