The federal government shutdown, now nearly three weeks old, hasn't led to an increase in flight delays or cancellations, according to an analysis by flight data provider Cirium.
From Oct. 1 through Oct. 17, 82.6% of U.S. flights departed within 15 minutes of schedule, which is an "average to above-average performance," wrote Mike Arnot, an aviation media relations specialist who works with Cirium. He said that 80% is generally the target for airports and airlines.
Cancellation numbers have been "very low," Arnot added.
This past weekend also didn't bring an unusual spike in disruptions, FlightAware data shows, though storms impacting the Dallas area did lead to a difficult operational weekend for American Airlines.
However, things could get worse soon, Transportation Department secretary Sean Duffy said during a Fox News interview Monday.
Air traffic controllers work without pay during government shutdowns. On Oct. 14, Duffy noted, they received only a partial paycheck. Their next payday is slated for Oct. 28, but they won't get paid at all if the shutdown lingers. As a result, said Duffy, some controllers have begun working other gigs, such as driving for Uber. That could result in increased disruptions, he said.
The previous government shutdown, which lingered for 35 days in 2018-19, ended on the day that a surge in work absences by air traffic controllers in Jacksonville and the Washington, D.C. area reverberated across U.S. airspace.
Early in this current shutdown, Duffy said that there had been a slight increase in call-outs by air traffic controllers, fueling concern that a similar dynamic could play out.
Since that time, the FAA has periodically imposed limited-duration ground delays on various airports due to staffing shortages. On Oct. 19, staffing-related delays were put in place at Chicago O'Hare, Dallas-Fort Worth and Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta among other airports. But there haven't been issues affecting the entire aviation system.
Both United and Delta in recent earnings calls have said that thus far the air traffic control system has operated well during the shutdown.