FCM, Flight Centre Travel Group's flagship corporate division, believes it is on track to recover up to 50% of its pre-Covid levels of sales by the end of the year.
Profitability is also on track to return late this year.
"Based on early signs that vaccines are effective in preventing symptomatic infection, and with healthy vaccine rollout rates in key markets such as the U.S., U.K. and New Zealand, we expect health risks to reduce," Marcus Eklund, global managing director of FCM, said in a statement. "In the absence of disruptions such as new strains, this should lead to an easing of government-imposed restrictions on domestic and international travel, and a partial rebound of the global business travel market by year end."
Eklund said that based on FCM's experiences, when restrictions are relaxed, travel immediately increases by 20% to 30%. That increase would be greater if international borders stay open, he said.
The industries that contributed the most business travel in 2020, including mining, construction, pharmaceuticals, energy and resources, are expected to again drive growth this year, Eklund said.
He does expect a drop-off in some business travel as work-from-home models have become popular, and that will likely lead to further consolidation in the corporate travel industry.