The Global Business Travel Association (GBTA) in its latest quarterly outlook issued Tuesday again revised downward its 2012 international business travel forecast, owing to the ongoing eurozone debt crisis, slowing growth in Asia and high oil prices. It also cut projections for meetings travel activity from its January report while leaving unchanged its U.S. domestic business travel projections.
GBTA now anticipates international outbound travel spending to increase 3 percent in 2012 versus last year. That's down from the association's 7.7% growth forecast in October and its 5.5% projection in January. GBTA calculated that international outbound travel spending in 2011 had jumped 8.5%. Similarly, after increasing 3.1% in 2011, U.S.-initiated international business trips this year are expected to rise by 1.2%, according to GBTA, which in January predicted 2.4% growth in such travel. For 2013, the association predicted greater growth in international outbound trips, up 4.8% from expected current year levels.
"While the outlook for Europe is cloudy and economic growth in Asia is slowing, things still look much better than they did 12 months ago," according to GBTA executive director Michael McCormick.
In the United States, overall spending on domestic and outbound international travel is expected to increase 4.6% versus 2011 and trip volume is expected to retreat 0.8%, according to GBTA. Both figures are unchanged from the association's January quarterly outlook. The spending total in 2011 was $251 billion, up from $234 billion in 2010, and included about $112 billion for transient business travel, $108 billion for group business travel and $31 billion for international outbound travel.
GBTA pegged transient travel spending growth at 3.7% for 2012 and 3.9% for next year, following a healthier 6.7% increase during 2011. For 2012, GBTA revised downward its predicted group travel spending increase to 3.3% year-over-year from a 4.2% growth forecast in January. "Group travel will keep pace with transient growth as long as no significant economic shocks take place," the association wrote. Group business travel spending in 2011 increased by more than 7%, according to the report.
Overall, "GBTA continues to believe business travel will reach its pre-recession levels by the middle of 2012," the association wrote. "As an economic indicator, the steady growth of business travel spend has continued to track accurately against job growth in the United States over the last twelve months."
GBTA's quarterly outlooks use an "econometric model" based on data from D.K. Shifflet & Associates and such macroeconomic indicators as U.S. gross domestic product, corporate profits and cash flow, travel components of the U.S. Consumer Price Index and the Institute of Supply Management's Business Sentiment Index.
Source: Business Travel News