The Middle East's tourism disruptions from the U.S. war with Iran are unlikely to be short-lived, region specialists said.
The region's tourism has suffered as operators scramble to cancel departure dates for the rest of March because of the conflict. An Oxford Economics report said the region could lose a whopping $56 billion in tourism spending if things aren't resolved in the next eight weeks.
And the effect of the war is likely to send a chill through the travel industry outside of the Middle East, said Mo Noubani, a Middle East specialist and director of travel for The Travel Box International, an Orlando-based travel agency.
"I'm expecting it to get worse before we start to see a leveling out," he said, adding that he hasn't felt this sense of unease since the Covid pandemic.
Noubani pointed to the ripple effect of airline disruptions outside of the Middle East. Dubai and Abu Dhabi in the United Arab Emirates and Doha, Qatar, are major aviation hubs. Even if the Middle East isn't their final destination, many travelers pass through airports in these cities on their way to destinations in Africa, Europe and Asia.
Amalia Lazarov, a Middle East specialist with Valerie Wilson Travel, said the scale of impact was jolting. The region is no stranger to conflict, but to see so many countries involved is unusual, she said.
"We have experienced many issues over the years, some of them less difficult, some more difficult. But this one is on a bigger scale because there's so many more countries involved," Lazarov said.
She had travelers in Israel, Jordan, the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia when war broke out.
Like the rest of the world, the Middle East had a tourism decline due to the pandemic, and then again in late 2023 due to the Israel-Gaza war. Now, the U.S.-Iran war could undo any tourism recovery and weaken consumer confidence in visiting the region, she said.
"It's like being on a boat, and you have a hole and water comes in. You put your hand down, and then another hole opens up. You put the other hand down, and then another hole opens, and you have no more hands," she said.
Cancellations pour in
Even countries that have not been attacked in retaliation by Iran are seeing their tourism affected from war.
River cruise operators in Egypt have canceled sailings. Avalon Waterways has suspended operations in Egypt for the rest of March. Tauck has canceled some cruise-tours in March, too. After saying earlier this week that it was canceling Nile cruises through the end of March, Viking reversed course after a reassessment, saying cruises would resume March 12.
It appears that Egypt and Saudi Arabia, countries where luxury investors and brands have pumped money into destinations, could suffer a tourism decline, both Noubani and Lazarov said.
And Jordan, which saw as much as a 90% drop in its tourism due to the Gaza war, is likely to suffer greatly as operators cancel departures.
Collette has canceled all departures for one itinerary and two extensions through March 21, said company spokeswoman Amelia Sugerman.
The affected itineraries are the company's Dubai extension, Jordan extension and Journey Through Egypt & Jordan tour. If the war lasts beyond March, more cancellations are likely.
"We will continue to monitor the situation and should changes or cancellations be necessary, we will do so," she said.
Globus had four guests in Amman, Jordan, when the fighting broke out. The operator is working on alternatives for them to exit Jordan due to closed airspace, said spokeswoman Melanie Born. A handful of guests were traveling through Dubai and rerouted via their airline.
Uniworld has canceled Jordan extensions for upcoming Nile cruises.
The Globus family of brands (Globus, Cosmos and Avalon Waterways) has canceled all March departures to Dubai, Qatar, Egypt and Jordan; this includes Nile river cruises. Guests are being offered the opportunity to rebook for a future date or receive a full refund.
Intrepid Travel has canceled its departures through March 31 to Egypt, Jordan, Oman and Saudi Arabia.
Customers in Egypt had the option to continue their tour or leave early. Tours in Jordan were paused, and Intrepid was assisting travelers in exiting the country.
Intrepid said it had approximately 200 customers in the region, most of whom are in Egypt.
G Adventures canceled trips to Jordan, Egypt and Oman up to and including March 22.
EF World Journeys postponed upcoming trips to Jordan and the UAE.
TTC Tour Brands, which includes Trafalgar, Costsaver and Insight Vacations, suspended trips to Jordan for the rest of March.
This report was updated on the evening of March 5 with information that Viking will resume Nile cruises on March 12.