Tom Stieghorst
From my perch in Coral Gables, I don't see a light at the end of the tunnel, although I'm as eager as everyone else to get back to a normal life.
But for arguments sake, let's say that the president's optimistic notion pans out and businesses start reopening in mid-April. What are the prospects for Florida tourism in 2020, and what will it look like 12 months from now?
We've had some practice with this exercise in Florida, in the form of reoccurring hurricanes. It is always darkest before the dawn, or a couple of days after a major hurricane. There's always chaos, uncertainty, inconvenience, fear.
And there's always the pervasive sense, despite rhetoric to the contrary, that things will never be the same, the recovery will take forever, the losses are steep and the authorities are barely able to organize life.
There's a lot of the same sort of feeling associated with the coronavirus pandemic.
I was looking through some photographs of the aftermath of hurricanes Irma and Maria from 2017. (One of the ways I'm using my time at home is organizing old photos). There's little in the photos to suggest that life would return to normal, but from the perspective of three years later, that's what happened.
If 2020 is even a decent year for Florida tourism, I'd be surprised. But there are a few reasons for hope. The coronavirus impact really didn't kick in here until March 12. By that time we'd run through all of February and half of March, the two best months statistically for Florida tourism.
Last year, hotel occupancy in Florida peaked in March at 85.5%, at an average daily rate of $181.84, following February's occupancy of 81.1% and ADR of $174.52.
Rightly or wrongly, the sands of Clearwater, Daytona Beach and Miami Beach were crowded with spring breakers for most of March. So a sizeable chunk of the best time of the year in terms of rate and occupancy was unspoiled.
Of course, in a normal year, occupancy in April doesn't fall to 20%, much less 0% as many lodgings are likely to report (In 2019 it was 77.1%). So on balance, April 2020 will probably wipe out February and March.
And even if things start to reopen, it is going to be a very gradual process. Universal Studios has already postponed the reopening of its Orlando area theme parks from March 31 to April 19, and others are doing the same.
But if the parks and hotels manage to get open, and the epidemic subsides, there's no doubt about pent-up demand. Incentives to travel will be everywhere, and many Americans will have a $1,200 emergency payment in their hands.
Should it occur, such a recovery could mean an unusually busy late summer and fall period, despite the heat and hurricane threat. It's easy for Floridians to underestimate the appeal of the state during the sticky months, and Florida is a safe and comfortable decision for many who have postponed travel plans this year.
So the best scenario, the Pollyanna scenario in the view of many, is a huge fall in business from mid-March to the end of April, with a gradual reopening and then a strong recovery in the second half of the year.
Let's hope it happens.