U.S. domestic leisure travel spearheaded the pandemic recovery in 2021 and has been going strong for two-plus years.
Now it may be slowing down.
"Certainly, domestic leisure travel has fully recovered, but we are definitely starting to see signs of softening nationally," said Adam Burke, CEO of Los Angeles Tourism. "If you look at a lot of the consumer-sentiment indicators, travelers are nervous about the economy. There's some anxiety around the November presidential election."
He added that LA Tourism is seeing some domestic travelers taking shorter vacations or opting to drive instead of fly.
With domestic travel possibly weakening, Burke said it's important to boost inbound travel, which hasn't fully recovered from the pandemic.
The Los Angeles Tourism & Convention Board, which is hosting next week's IPW inbound travel trade show, released 2023 numbers ahead of the event showing that its 43.3 million domestic visitors represented a 100% recovery from the pandemic. However, Los Angeles' 5.8 million international visitors were only 79% of 2019.
Drawing more international visitors will have a multiplier effect because they spend three times as much as domestic travelers do.
Burke, a member of the Commerce Department's U.S. Travel and Tourism Advisory Board, said that pre-pandemic, travel and tourism as a service export generated a $54 billion trade surplus, a number that is now down to $4 billion.
"The U.S. is really in a dogfight for share of market right now," he said. "We've got to be more competitive."
Burke said that Brand USA, the public-private entity that promotes travel to the U.S., "has to punch significantly above its weight" because its funding hasn't risen since Brand USA was founded in 2009.
"Brand USA is trying to compete with roughly 70% of the buying power they had at their formation," he said. "We really need to focus on restoring the U.S.'s global competitiveness. We have seen record spending levels by any number of global destinations -- they are aggressively pursuing market share."
Burke said the Biden administration was "hugely supportive" of measures to increase visitation and applauded its moves to reduce visa wait times, such as waiving in-person interviews for low-risk visa renewals indefinitely.
"That was a major potential pain point," Burke said. "In China alone there are almost 9 million 10-year visas expiring this year and next year. In India there are about 5 million. So waiving the in-person interview on an indefinite basis is a huge win for the U.S."
There are challenges, he said, in legislation being introduced in Congress. For example, he cited the Traveler Privacy Protection Act of 2023, introduced by Sen. John Kennedy (R-La.) and Sen. Jeff Merkley (D-Ore.), which would repeal the Transportation Security Administration's authorization to use biometric facial-recognition technology.
"There's no two ways about it. That would have broad negative consequences for all travelers," Burke said. "The reality is the use of biometric technology has really helped to enhance aviation safety and security. And it's also created a much more seamless traveler experience by reducing wait times for travelers."
IPW expects that this year's attendance will exceed 2019 for the first time since the pandemic.