Whether or not the domestic river cruise lines are able to sail in 2020 could very well hinge on one thing: Rapid Covid-19 testing.
American Queen Steamboat Co. (AQSC) founder and CEO John Waggoner, who put his company's planned restart this week on hold after a passenger on the first Alaska cruise of the season earlier this month tested positive for Covid-19, said he doesn't think they'll be able to set sail this year without better testing.
"The lessons learned are that until we have a rapid test you can administer and get the results before the passengers board you just don't know," he said.
"I think that is just the fact that we are all coming to grips with, if you have one person on board [with the virus] you could get shut out. It puts everybody in the cruise business in a very tenuous position."
Waggoner had been planning to resume sailings of the first of his company's four paddlewheelers this week. But with infections rates still so high in the States, he said he isn't optimistic about the remainder of the season. For instance, he said, the probability of launching two boats with some 400 people on board without at least one person being unknowingly infected at this time is just too high.
Still, he said he will revisit that decision every 30 days and that the company is currently is experimenting with rapid testing at their office.
Since all of their trips include a pre-cruise overnight stay at a hotel in city of departure, he said they could test guests upon arrival at their hotel. But he said it remains questionable whether they could get all the results within 24 hours.
Another option Waggoner said AQSC is looking into, along with its healthcare partner Ochsner Health, is purchasing their own testing equipment.
Without accurate, fast testing, he said, the risk of starting up and having a passenger get sick or test positive after a sailing is underway could jeopardize demand for 2021 bookings.
"Our bookings for 2021 are doing very well. I think if we do try and do this and we do have even one or two people who test positive [while sailing], it's going to hurt our momentum for next year," Waggoner said.
Waggoner said the ports they visit are anxious for them to return, but "I think that what it's going to take for us, is to be able to test 100% of the crew and 100% of the passengers, and to have it done within 24 hours" of sailing.
Charles Robertson, CEO of American Cruise Lines, agreed that the while the outlook for 2020 is uncertain, he said he remains "optimistic about operating a portion of this year, particularly with rapid-testing capabilities. The bright spot is that the outlook for 2021 looks better than ever. The market for domestic, modern cruises has been growing for years, but consumer interest and appreciation for small-ship experiences that are close to home is higher than ever now."